In this video I share my experience on the Big Question in the minds of lots of traders. This is not particularly about GBPJPY. I use the 15 min time frame only as an example. [This video may appear fuzzy in the last 1/3 due to technical issue beyond my control]
I point out that candlestick charts can be deceptive in giving an idea about price, that may be erroneous. It is natural especially for new traders to see a number of unfavourable candles and think that 'price is going down'. This is human nature. When we see short term patterns we tend to believe that they mean something.
I show a bit on how I use my indicators to assess probabilities. I also change my perspective into higher time frames. The trends on higher time frames in general tend to overrule what happens on lower time frames (but not always obviously).
My answer to the Big Question, is that price is probably going in the direction of the bigger trends. In other words it is pretty useless narrowing focus on one part of a chart. The trend is your friend in determining probabilities. Find your true friend and stick with your friend, is what I always say. [Of course, there are other ways of assessing probabilities]