FullTimeTrader
Long

GBPJPY-big bat near to completion-my common mistakes

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
1684 17 37
Hello, one of the features i like from TradingView is that i can use it as my personal log. All charts are saved and after some time i can come back and analyze my common mistakes and how can i improve my performance.
Im saying this because one month ago i published and idea looking to sell the C leg of a potential bullish bat:
GPBJPY-agressive C sell - bullish bat


I took that trade but booked profits too early, got too emotional after the China crisis and did'nt follow my plan. This is a common mistake i think most traders do: to take profits too soon and keep losing trades too long.

I also realized that i dont trust my own analysis/charts and manage a trade looking every candle on the same or lower TF.

Its a great true that psychology is 80% of a succesful or failed trader.

Having said that, we see here a perfect bat near to completion:

- CD=1.61 AB leg
- long term level of S/R
- expected SL and targets on chart

Follow your plan!!!

Bes regards.

*****************DISCLAMER********************************************************************
This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Always do your own analysis before opening a trade.
Managing is 60% of a trade, anytime I may decide not to open, close or even stop and reverse a trade depending on price action.
Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree).



Thanks for posting this :) Good Luck
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What do you think of it bouncing around 180.5?
snapshot
Reply
FullTimeTrader KevinSinghDhaliwal
a year ago
Hello, its a big possibility but we must first build a solid case before to enter long. One of MY other mistakes is to enter a trade near a trendline just because its there. I will look for a setup when prices reaches that level. The bullish bat is different because we have defined rules to trade this pattern and so far this is a perfect potential bat.
+2 Reply
KevinSinghDhaliwal FullTimeTrader
a year ago
totally agree, thanks
Reply
Yahia.Awes KevinSinghDhaliwal
a year ago
Perfect trendline even has more touches if you draw it further to the left.
+1 Reply
KevinSinghDhaliwal Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Totally expecting a bounce, but have to see how it reacts to it. Anything after 3rd touch is little concern for me but lets see
Reply
FullTimeTrader KevinSinghDhaliwal
a year ago
Yes, im closely looking that area also, it aligns with my ew count of a long term ending diagonal. Lets see.
Reply
aibek
a year ago
Hello! Indeed most of traders do so, but you were bold to admit it aloud!
Thanks for post!
Reply
Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Connect the dots hit the spots
Reply
Lanmar PRO
a year ago
Funny you mention this: "I also realized that i dont trust my own analysis/charts and manage a trade looking every candle on the same or lower TF." I am going through the exact same problem. Good luck moving toward your loyalty to your original analysis.
Reply
FullTimeTrader Lanmar
a year ago
Yes! doing an analysis is just one step, once we opened a trade its a different thing and we have to manage our emotions......
+1 Reply
KVE PRO
a year ago
I was looking at the same, but you posted well before me... :-p
Not sure about the validity of the pattern because of the C point being so high, is this 100% a valid pattern?

I do admit doing exactly as you describe and take profits too soon...
Allthough, if there is one time I wouldn't trust the pattern to fully unravell it would be now....
We'll see how it goes, I will definately trade off the bat and probably take full profits @ 38.2..!
So this trade could be the lesson I need :-p !
Good luck!
GBP/JPY: Possible bullish pattern with limited potential?

Looking at CADJPY and AUDJPY later this weekend, since they were beaten so hard bullish patterns should be showing up on all of these pairs now...
Any quick tips?
Reply
FullTimeTrader KVE
a year ago
Hello, the C point of the bat is at 0.8860 fib retracement, jus perfect!! please check the rules.
http://www.harmonictrader.com/price_patternsbat.htm
If price fills the bat i will be there for sure and follow the plan. Im not following the AUDJPY and CADJPY because after a spike price usually makes complex and unexpected consolidations, but will see next week.

Reply
KVE PRO FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Tnx 4 the reply, I did check but since C was at 0.947 according to the tradingview ABCD tool I used I was in doubt...
I did include wicks though, but stil I can't get below 0.9 even when I use closing prices for C, close enough I guess...?
Some info I read said that C is invalidated when the candle closes above 0.886 of AB but I guess it all depends on data feeds and timeframes too. I see now that you use FXCM data and mine is FX_IDC with different data so it seems, wasn't aware of that...!!
I guess as long as it's close to 0.886 it's OK...?
Thanks again and good luck!
Reply
njbtrading1
a year ago
Very interesting chart. Personally I'm not sure if the fundamentals are going to align with a bounce of that magnitude from the D. GBP releasing bearish data all last week and now no rate hike in sight means my bearish outlook remains in place. Equally with the stock markets not finding a rally up to highs again, a bearish outlook with the com-block currencies (from falling commodity prices) and worsening Chinese data we may see more money flow into the safe haven currencies. Such as the JPY. Which means the flip side to your trade plan could be that we break the support and actually move much lower. Keeping an eye on it ;)
Reply
FullTimeTrader njbtrading1
a year ago
Hello, thanks for your fundamental information, i agree, my bias is short with all GBP pairs. GBP is extremely overbought and rate hike is very far, but price will not fall directly to lower levels. We should take the best of fundamentals and technicals. After 1,500 pips decline this price needs a technical correction and this is the ideal place. The first targe is more "realistic". According to my trading style i alwas open three positions, move SL to BE when price reaches first target and manage the two remaining positions risk free to take the most of a trade. Regards.
Reply
njbtrading1 FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Sounds good! I've just published a potential chart for if your trade set up doesn't work out. Will be interesting to compare in a week or so time. . Good luck with all your set ups!
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