GBPJPY-big bat near to completion-my common mistakes

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
1687 17 37
Hello, one of the features i like from TradingView is that i can use it as my personal log. All charts are saved and after some time i can come back and analyze my common mistakes and how can i improve my performance.
Im saying this because one month ago i published and idea looking to sell the C leg of a potential bullish bat:

I took that trade but booked profits too early, got too emotional after the China crisis and did'nt follow my plan. This is a common mistake i think most traders do: to take profits too soon and keep losing trades too long.

I also realized that i dont trust my own analysis/charts and manage a trade looking every candle on the same or lower TF.

Its a great true that psychology is 80% of a succesful or failed trader.

Having said that, we see here a perfect bat near to completion:

- CD=1.61 AB leg
- long term level of S/R
- expected SL and targets on chart

Follow your plan!!!

Bes regards.

This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Always do your own analysis before opening a trade.
Managing is 60% of a trade, anytime I may decide not to open, close or even stop and reverse a trade depending on price action.
Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree).

Very interesting chart. Personally I'm not sure if the fundamentals are going to align with a bounce of that magnitude from the D. GBP releasing bearish data all last week and now no rate hike in sight means my bearish outlook remains in place. Equally with the stock markets not finding a rally up to highs again, a bearish outlook with the com-block currencies (from falling commodity prices) and worsening Chinese data we may see more money flow into the safe haven currencies. Such as the JPY. Which means the flip side to your trade plan could be that we break the support and actually move much lower. Keeping an eye on it ;)
FullTimeTrader njbtrading1
Hello, thanks for your fundamental information, i agree, my bias is short with all GBP pairs. GBP is extremely overbought and rate hike is very far, but price will not fall directly to lower levels. We should take the best of fundamentals and technicals. After 1,500 pips decline this price needs a technical correction and this is the ideal place. The first targe is more "realistic". According to my trading style i alwas open three positions, move SL to BE when price reaches first target and manage the two remaining positions risk free to take the most of a trade. Regards.
njbtrading1 FullTimeTrader
Sounds good! I've just published a potential chart for if your trade set up doesn't work out. Will be interesting to compare in a week or so time. . Good luck with all your set ups!
I was looking at the same, but you posted well before me... :-p
Not sure about the validity of the pattern because of the C point being so high, is this 100% a valid pattern?

I do admit doing exactly as you describe and take profits too soon...
Allthough, if there is one time I wouldn't trust the pattern to fully unravell it would be now....
We'll see how it goes, I will definately trade off the bat and probably take full profits @ 38.2..!
So this trade could be the lesson I need :-p !
Good luck!

Looking at CADJPY and AUDJPY later this weekend, since they were beaten so hard bullish patterns should be showing up on all of these pairs now...
Any quick tips?
Hello, the C point of the bat is at 0.8860 fib retracement, jus perfect!! please check the rules.
If price fills the bat i will be there for sure and follow the plan. Im not following the AUDJPY and CADJPY because after a spike price usually makes complex and unexpected consolidations, but will see next week.

KVE FullTimeTrader
Tnx 4 the reply, I did check but since C was at 0.947 according to the tradingview ABCD tool I used I was in doubt...
I did include wicks though, but stil I can't get below 0.9 even when I use closing prices for C, close enough I guess...?
Some info I read said that C is invalidated when the candle closes above 0.886 of AB but I guess it all depends on data feeds and timeframes too. I see now that you use FXCM data and mine is FX_IDC with different data so it seems, wasn't aware of that...!!
I guess as long as it's close to 0.886 it's OK...?
Thanks again and good luck!
Funny you mention this: "I also realized that i dont trust my own analysis/charts and manage a trade looking every candle on the same or lower TF." I am going through the exact same problem. Good luck moving toward your loyalty to your original analysis.
Yes! doing an analysis is just one step, once we opened a trade its a different thing and we have to manage our emotions......
+1 Reply
Hello! Indeed most of traders do so, but you were bold to admit it aloud!
Thanks for post!
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