GBPJPY: 215.70 — A buyer's trap zone

GBPJPY is entering a highly sensitive price zone on the H4 timeframe. After a strong rebound from the bottom around 211.00, the pair has consistently created higher lows and moved within a short-term uptrend structure. However, as the price approached the 215.70 level, I began to see signs that buyers were slowing down instead of continuing to expand momentum.

The key point is that 215.70 is not a typical resistance zone. It's a convergence area between the upper boundary of the uptrend structure, psychological resistance, and a region where strong selling pressure previously occurred. Such areas are often where large amounts of money start taking profits, especially after a prolonged price rally without a deep correction.

Looking closer, the current uptrend is no longer as "clean" as it was in the early stages. Recent bullish candles are shorter, with more upper shadows, and the price is constantly reacting around the highs. This suggests that buyers are still trying to push the price up, but the follow-through momentum is no longer as strong.

From a macroeconomic perspective, GBPJPY is currently not receiving absolute support from fundamentals. The British pound is lacking a strong new catalyst to continue leading the rally, while the JPY is beginning to show signs of renewed support due to expectations that the BOJ may maintain a more hawkish stance in the near future. Furthermore, whenever GBPJPY advances too quickly to higher levels, market concerns arise about the possibility of the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervening verbally to curb the yen's weakening.

That's why I consider the current 215.70 level more like a "bull trap zone" than a safe breakout point. If the price fails to close the H4 candle strongly above this level, the probability of a correction to 214.20 is quite high. This is also a nearby support zone and a place where the market may test liquidity before deciding on the next trend.

Reference strategy:
Sell price: 215.40 – 215.70
Small quantity: above 216.10
Target: 214.20