THE BIG PICTURE: First thing to notice is that point C is right around a 50% fib level of segment AB. While the highs at point A had a clear cut head and shoulders reversal, recent highs have yet to provide a definitive reversal formation around point C despite developing distribution. The average percentage change of the retracements for segment BC was around 6% and the total move lasted about 38 bars. The time duration resembles a move from 1995-1998. Considering the average retracement of segment BC a down move of 8% would provide another indication of a trend change.
THE TECHNICAL STANDPOINT: Confluence at point C is providing a level of resistance from which risk can be defined. A break and hold below 170 will trigger a long term sell signal that targets a move toward point D as long as the trend line and fib level hold. Switching to the lower time frames for short setups while ignoring long setups puts the trade execution in line with this idea. Movement above and beyond point C will invalidate the bias and risk will be limited.
Comments
alex.a
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However did you hear MPC will raise the rate?
jangseohee
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no
jangseohee
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Hi Andy,
if your prophecy about GJ is true in the long run, OMG
it really make sense :-)
Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe
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Hi jangseohee
OMG is no doubt what will be in order! Trying to stay as objective as possible. Thank you for the comment :)
jangseohee
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Andy,
it seems that for the past two crisis, people flocked to yen (any fundamental reason -though i think yen is not considered a "Safe Haven")
and the price action shows that such situation is brewing yet another one and it is getting more serious
Andy_Garcia_CMT_CFTe
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jangseonhee,
it is definitely getting more serious, but that is the constant when considering the cyclical nature of markets. If all else fails when the next financial scare emerges, bet that the preferred safe haven will resort back to precious metals until the storm settles.