4xForecaster

Possible S/T Bounce Against M/T Bears | $GBP $JPY #forex

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
Friends,


Watch for a possible M15 level bounce to levels defined by predictive/forecasting model as:

1 - TG-1 - 181.397 - 08 JAN 2015

2 - TG-2 - 182.263 - 08 JAN 2015

3 - TG-Hi - 183.026 - 08 JAN 2015

4 - TG-x - 183.651 - 08 JAN 2015


A fifth target is defined as:

TG-Lo - 180.019 - 08 JAN 2015

This TG-Lo would in fact act as a possible springboard IF and only IF it held against any further bearish advance - In effect, this would act as the signal line for any potential BULLISH adverse excursion.


INSTITUTIONAL POSITION - BEARISH:

I would qualify any rallying as an adverse excursive event on the basis that a single bank has pronounced a bearish bias with an abysmal bearish target.

I believe that some SL hunting might take place before any such descent.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The predictive/forecasting model defined the aforementioned target with the condition also defined above.

However, I have posted dashed arrows not to define any timing, but instead to define the breadth of price action that could possibly occur in this timeframe.

Whereas TG-x has acted as a lowest-probability level, here, any bullish advance would likely stop at TG-Hi = 183.026.


BASIC PATTERN:

A simple channel quartered to highlight price action suggests that price has rising to the 4th quarter, and dwelled there for most of the time. Look for a sustain residence therein as we wait for the forecast to unfold.

A reversal at TG-Lo would perhaps inspire the pattern trader to decipher a Kiss-of-Death ("KoD"), sending price our lofty ways.


OVERALL:

Overall, a pure predictive/forecasting model-based analysis is generating this chart. A single institution is sitting on a bearish position, while fundamentals are bearish for both $GBP and $JPY. This makes this trade a highly speculative proposition with little technical or fundamental elements on which to secure a directional bias - in essence, this is all generated by the predictive model, so beware.

Directional indicator is left at "Neutral".

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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MertErten
2 years ago
nice,
channel broken now.

GBP is really weak, so technicals doesn't always work.

fundemental > technicals
-1 Reply
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