Further drops in the $NIKKEI will drag this pair lower as the $JPY is bought. The $NIKKEI has a potential short V target of 11225 which is also in confluence with a .
If the $NIKKEI see's a rally and continues its to the V target of 19790, look for the longer term N target of 164.558 and buy dips on the way.
But if the $NIKKEI does rally and stops after tagging the D1 Kijun-sen, look to sell correlated pairs (or the $NIKKEI) with stops at levels suited to your money management rules.
Shorter term time frames would be dependant of (1hr to 1 week) while look for longer term times at 1-3 months.
This could line up the period between August and October for some hefty drops (see 2007 & 2008)
Addendum: I posted this on my twitter feed regarding the $NIKKEI. The last time it met a large flat topped Kumo, it retraced then dropped.