kijunsen

$GBPJPY Short and long positions

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
141 2 0
$GBPJPY remains bearish on H4 but, it is still bullish on D1 with one exception. Price has been drifting close to the Kumo on D1 and has recently completed a weak T/K Cross.

Further drops in the $NIKKEI will drag this pair lower as the $JPY is bought. The $NIKKEI has a potential short V target of 11225 which is also in confluence with a 61.8% retracement .

If the $NIKKEI see's a rally and continues its bullish trend to the bullish V target of 19790, look for the longer term N target of 164.558 and buy dips on the way.

But if the $NIKKEI does rally and stops after tagging the D1 Kijun-sen, look to sell correlated pairs (or the $NIKKEI) with stops at levels suited to your money management rules.

Shorter term time frames would be dependant of volatility (1hr to 1 week) while look for longer term times at 1-3 months.

This could line up the period between August and October for some hefty drops (see 2007 & 2008)

Addendum: I posted this on my twitter feed regarding the $NIKKEI. The last time it met a large flat topped Kumo, it retraced then dropped.
snapshot
Short term short V Target has been invalidated.

Longer term short E Target still in play. N target completed @ 149.834 (not presented).

Longer term long N target still in play. 148.173 will invalidate the N target and recalculation will be required.
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Longer term Long N target needs to be re calculated. If it passes the short E - Target, it will likely become a longer term Long V target if the $NIKKEI rallies into September.
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