CBMotivation

Sterling / Kiwi - Break plans A & B

OANDA:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
I've traded this pair a lot over the years and very recently had a single 800 pip trade with additional shorts adding up to 1500 pips, once this thing is trending, it's a beautiful trade.

But Brexit, if we weren't negotiating Brexit I'd be Long on this pair, to not only go back to the highs of the head and shoulders pattern but, break the center line of the longterm monthly descending (yes Bearish ) channel, to continue to move back-up to the highs around 2.1.

This pair has rotated beautifully down this channel for more than 12 years, and since 2012 the pair found a smaller channel to trade within (yellow box - Point Of Control). There was one huge move to the upside of the channel, and a subsequent move down helped by Brexit, when it fell all the way back to the 1.6 Southern edge in late 2016 and the move off that low created the long-term upside move we're in now, straight back into the POC and two new trend lines , in black.

But maybe this is the first time we do not rotate back to the highs because, well Brexit. So we have two options, Bullish plan A or bearish Plan B, PRETTY SIMPLE REALLY.

Fundamentals: Bank of England Interest rate announcement this week.

What are your thoughts?

Patience pays, happy hunting!







Comment: Weekly descending channel, have you worked out yet that most currencies are competing on who can be devalued the fastest? This is what happens when central banks print money to buy debt ( Quantitative Easing or QE), the ECB is still doing it to the tune of Trillions of Euros.

Comment: On the hourly chart you can see this is building, very slowly with higher lows and recently a break of 1.912, you wouldn't be too crazy to place a limit order @1.898 unless it's the BoE Interest rate announcement, which is what could drive this thing lower.

Comment: Hence why I'm waiting for a breakout first!
Comment: Short-term trade open, target 1.894

Comment: Trade has continued to be bullish overnight on short-term timeframes, not from Pound strength by Aussie / Kiwi weakness, lots of currency flight to the ye, check out my other trades doing very well right now.

Look at 1.92 to be a stop, for this Intraday / well maybe until tomorrow, we're still inside this triangle, so expecting a move down from the top, if the Pound loses strength against the Kiwi

Trade closed: stop reached
Comment: Stop too tight there, but I'm not interested in holding it if breaks the triangle, big moves to Yen and swiss franc last night, save haven flight

Comment: As you can see, overnight there was flight to the Swiss franc and Yen, with an eventual breakdown of the Aussie and Kiwi $, Sterling is now giving way some, but I wouldn't sell that pair with that level of Kiwi weakness
Comment:
Comment: Traded it back down and wiped out my losses, slightly larger trade to achieve that.

Comment: Looking pretty bearish still.... look at that pin bar rejection of the triangle upper support

Comment: I didn't enter this trade, but if you took plan A, now is the time to take some profits, although sterling is looking stronger at this time.

Comment: We're approaching an area of major resistance to expect a pullback, hence why I say take profits now

WELCOME BACK
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CBMotivation aboulzouz
@aboulzouz, many thanks
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thanks you sir
+1 Reply
Thanks for sharing @CBMotivation ! What is your stop loss for your short term trade?
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@dr90210, mine is 1.92
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