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Short

Trading Strategy for (next) Week 26 (27 JUNE - 01 JULY, 2016)

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
65 3 1
After the Brexit vote, the GBPNZD             pair will have a strong tendency to linger more in bearish trend targeting as low as 1.78 before it slowly crawls upward.

As such, I'm totally not interested in any buy setup now. Volatility may cause sudden upward moves, but the longer the pair stays in bearish mode, the more swaps you have to pay if you are holding a long position.

I will be looking for sell setups either at 2.02 (where an exhaustion of 30min Wave C might occur) or at 1.88 (where new lows might trigger further downward moves).

In any case, I will be selling the pair over 2.10522, if ever the pair is pushed there by volatility (such as BOE interventions, or another China Black Monday).

There are things that could change this view such as when BOE suddenly hints for a historic rate hike, when the NZDUSD             is dragged down by risk aversion or a rate cut by the RBNZ.

Trade active: On 27th of June I was able to secure 20K short position at 1.873 as the pair created new low, however, this suffered a shakening for 3 days until Mark Carney warned about rate cuts.

After Mark Carney spoke about future rate cuts, a strong or weak USD is now out of the equation of the GBPNZD pair. Since the GBP can never be any stronger than it is now, a weakening NZD or another China black days are now the only things that can pull the pair up. As such I will continue to hold GBPNZD short positions and keep my strategy aligned with the overall down trend.

I will take small profits at Fibonacci points and reposition shorts on every rebound under the clouds. The target will be 1.78 at which point I will be willing to take long position for any small buy signal.

Comment:
On 27th of June I was able to secure 20K short position at 1.873 as the pair created new low, however, this suffered a shakening for 3 days until Mark Carney warned about rate cuts.

After Mark Carney spoke about future rate cuts, a strong or weak USD is now out of the equation of the GBPNZD pair. Since the GBP can never be any stronger than it is now, a weakening NZD or another China black days are now the only things that can pull the pair up. As such I will continue to hold GBPNZD short positions and keep my strategy aligned with the overall down trend.

I will take small profits at Fibonacci points and reposition shorts on every rebound under the clouds. The target will be 1.78 at which point I will be willing to take long position for any small buy signal.

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