We have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion. Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode.
Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down.
Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup. Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long.
See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time.
Agree, watch these interesting setup, everything is pointing to 2.4000 as the top target to look for shorts
IvanLabrie
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Excellent!
Then it might spike above it or not reach it before collapsing.
I'll enter short at my target after closing the long.
Might be a keeper for a long time once we're short.
FullTimeTrader
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This aligns also with the idea the NZD is reaching a bottom and will reverse soon. I will look for shorts around 2.400 for sure
IvanLabrie
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Yes, exactly. Finally some clarity.
Also, look at this idea: My alternate count in EURUSD would correlate with eur and gbp rallying one last time.
I'll aggressively buy the Euro if we gap down completing my triangle E. I expect a sharp triangle thrust up, completing the Y wave (this would be a triple three, with wxy wave W, triangle X and a sharp Y pending).
I think this is what aligns better with the rest of the currencies.
I'll post it in my Euro thread.
AA15
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Which Euro thread you referring to?
Thnx
IvanLabrie
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Here's the update:
See the correlations?
End of the nzd weakness cycle soon. End of the Euro/GBP strength cycle soon, but first one last leg up for the Euro and Pound, one last leg down for the New Zealand dollar, at least in the intermediate term.
MarkLangley
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Great chart Ivan wtaching your development is very interesting and rewarding well done, doji at the close need to watch reaction next week
IvanLabrie
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Thanks!
These exotic pairs have a pretty wild adr, not for the faint of heart.
I switched to trading spreads instead, when dealing with them.
I'll make a post on the subject soon.
timwest
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I think when you publish this chart, you can label it a "long" and then make another chart when it hits the upside target and then label that one a "short". It's a shame to see this labeled as a losing trade (red background) when you labeled out the rally. Nice work Ivan!