Timing is key
Long

Possible Counter Trend Play On GBP/NZD

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
204 6 2
Hello,

Part 2 of this idea below

Have a few areas I will be watching for a counter trend long position in and around 2 median lines within a larger median line set. Let's see how this pans out.
ForceFollower
2 years ago
Well, OK., but I don't think it's going to take out the high at 1.93606. It seems to be too bearish for me.
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PranavShandilya
2 years ago
It is too bearish for that move.. It will touch 1.9245 first.
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GC_
2 years ago
mod schiff on the 20m
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Timing is key
2 years ago
Hey guys, this is a great example of the power of the forks, correctly interpreted, it can give you all the info you need. A few things to take away....After the 2nd touch ( & then reversal ), statistics have shown me, that we have an over 80% chance of reaching the upper MLH. So my next step was to look at possible long entries using the downward fork. Although the market came down into the pink circle 1 bar prior to the 75 vertical it nullified my entry. The next push down also fell into the pink circle on a large range bar ( Good Call PranavShandilya ) but fell shy of both median lines with a GAP!!!! I new instantly it was Game On as the gap would be filled quickly....however my risk reward was not there....so again, frustratingly, I had to wait for an entry. I was now looking at a pullback into the 85 vertical as by this stage the previous 2 tops had been taken out and I new ( Smart Money ) would be eyeing out all the short covering stops sitting above 1.93606 which was also where my target was...........The market came down 3 bars into the 85 vertical and closed above the open....Good risk reward, high probability trade and came in bang on the 88/89 vertical and then reversed.........

PS: Take note of my the blue text in upper right hand corner of chart and also the red text under the vertical lines giving you some of the reasons I was looking for changes in direction around these points

PPS: 357 came from the previous range down 0.03567 I just moved the decimal point.

Thanks guys and happy trading
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Congratulations! Your fork has been working very well. And your cyan arrow predicted price to the tick. :-)
However, it's not easy to make money in this market, when the range is so tight and my broker's (OANDA) spreads so wide. Anyway, I remain bearish and will be looking to go short at some rally.
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Timing is key ForceFollower
2 years ago
Thankyou Force Follower, The trip back down to the median from here is odds on with an even higher probability, your strategy is good from here with the major trend.
Happy Trading
TIK
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