Over the last three weeks GBP/NZD has formed a bearish channel
. However, the prospects for the time being are uncertain, as the currency pair is approaching important support. July low at 2.27 may well turn out to be a floor for the Pound and trigger a long-term recovery. This will be confirmed by a breach of the upper boundary of the pattern at 2.3040, which will pave the way for a rally towards the 200-hour SMA
at 2.3360. On the other hand, if 2.27 is broken, the next target could be as low as 2.1330, where the pair bottomed out in June. Proximity to an important level could be a reason for a significant skew in the distribution between the bulls and bears: 65% of positions are long and 35% are short.