GBPNZD – Potential Continuation Triangle Breakout

FX_IDC:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
There has been growing bearish sentiment for GBP contributed by among other things the lack of progress on Brexit negotiation which might continue. However, it might have been overdone based on COT data as at 21st August and released on 24th August 2018 (please see chart below under update). Whist it is not at absolute extreme level it at a zone where a retracement bounce might develop.

Its relative strength against some of the currencies might resurface again even if it struggles against USD.

GBPNZD looks more clearer than other GBP pair and note the following observations for bullish trade:
1. Has been in bullish trend channel since Oct 2016.
2. Supported by rising 200 MA on daily chart .
3. Since posting Nov 2017 peak, it has been in sideways consolidation into what could be continuation triangle which appears completed.
4. 50 period RSI also supports potential bullish breakout of the triangle.
5. If 1.9050 area holds then it could offer a long trade with initial target of around 2.0 as whole number and secondary target of 2.1 area.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach which I consider helps me the most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Comment: Chart of GBP COT Data:
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