RyanVarghese

Quid about to Shine

Long
FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
It seems that GBP has risen from the dead and as per my earlier analysis on GBPUSD from mid-August, we have come a decent way to being up by almost 700 pips.

Hypothetically, let's assume, the UK gets an exit with a deal or an extension. In this case, we could see a jump in the pound that should tag 1.32. As a result, positional traders will look out to book profits as we go into the important cluster of resistance plus an overstretched rally in a short span.

Traders who couldn't take a position will be ready to buy the correction at good support and bargain price where the trend still remains intact with an upward channel that could be around 1.27. From a technical perspective, that would form an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern on a monthly time frame. if that gets validated, then we could see 1.45 by next year-end. At the same time, we should also see some USD weakness..by looking at the deteriorating US data that could prolong for some time.

GBP will be bid because of its improving fundamentals (most economic prints have been better in the past few quarters .

Again, this is just an idea of what could happen because momentum and volume precede price which we have just started to witness.

On the other hand, if we see a hard Brexit, then everyone knows we could see a crash below 1.20 or worst case 1.10. I adhere to the long side.


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