The buy positions in GBPUSD didn't go as far as we liked. Our target was (and still is) 1.36 minimum for the consolidation in GBPUSD. Although we moved lower as a result of Friday's Average Earnings and NFP I'm not so certain that it will really impact the dollar that much yet. The market wants to see signs that the FED will hike rates but that's most likely not going to happen. I therefore think that we will see this consolidation take a little longer. Off course many things can happen in this Political and economical climate so let's trade what we see. To me it seems like we are not in the start of a continuation of the downtrend but a wave C of wave B larger degree. This wave C in Blue has a 5 wave structure which is even extended. So what's the plan? In the beginning of the week I like to see a third leg higher for wave 4 in red. Then I like to see a bearish continuation for wave 5 in red which will complete wave C in blue as well as wave B in brown.
Keep in mind that this is my scenario and I have reasons for this scenario, key is that we know what to look for and this might very well present 3 trades so don't worry if you missed the move on Friday because the real fun will start next week.
If you are not in the buy yet wait for consolidations, if we reverse we will adjust.
Comments
TheMarketSurgeon1
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Thank you Sir. GBPUSD is poised to be bullish, and I concur with you that it may have longer consolidation before that happens as USDOLLAR might not go far on the bullish side. Meanwhile, AUDUSD and NZDUSD which didn't react much earlier on USDOLLAR strength might make major bearish moves in the coming week
TimStuyts
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We have rate decision from RBNZ this week. Keep an eye on EURAUD and GBPAUD or EURNZD and GBPNZD for that matter which might provide nice trades as well. The reason that AUDUSD didn't respond as much is because Forex is relative (1 pair against the other) and most was already priced in up to RBA statement. I also see 0.81 as fair value for AUDUSD which will complete the correction on the daily time frame. AUD/NZD and on the other hand EUR/GBP have a different market dynamic so you could certainly be right but I like to see structure show that first. To me both bearish and bullish Dollar is on the table for next week and as long as we know what to do we are fine. Thanks for your input and good trading to you Sir!
TheMarketSurgeon1
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Yes the price action will set the record clear
ruthrajamanie
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Nice chart.. Looks like we are going to have real fun next week. Thank you for ur hard work
ruthrajamanie
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What are your thoughts on this pair now? will it go back up again?
TimStuyts
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We might just have seen 5 waves higher with a strong correction currently in progress. We have to wait for confirmations first. My entry was 1.2970 with stop at break even. If I see a confirmation of a bullish reversal I will add.