GBPUSD Dramatic Downside Action Probably Imminent after 1.4025
Wave count looks like this triangle is forming at the endpoint of wave (C) of a bearish 4th wave (started October 2016) of a downward 3rd wave in a larger impulse.
Wave A up and B down of the triangle completed on February 24th and April 12th. Wave C up is nearing completion at a suspected target of 1.4025 to 1.4040 of a thrust from a smaller triangle between May 3rd and 7th within wave C. 1.4025 is the post-triangle thrust measurement. Nearby 1.4040 happens to be the point where wave C would be 0.618 of what wave B was.
After wave C completes, wave D down would commence. It seems that 1.3810 to 1.3818 is a likely target for wave D, as it would be 0.382 of wave B while also 0.618 of predicted wave C. Wave D may bottom in late May, and wave E peak in early June, if the timespan for each successive wave continues at a rate of around 0.618 the time of the preceding wave.
If that all holds true, the downside target for the thrust of the 5th wave (completing either wave 3 or perhaps only the first wave of wave 3 down) might reach down into the 1.11 area, then followed by further consolidation and more downside action. If the bearish 4th wave from October 2016 is going to form a contracting triangle, rather than end in 3 waves, then the downside thrust would have to stop and turn up above 1.1414 in order to generate a further wave (D) and (E) before completing a downward thrust most likely much deeper than 1.11.
Wave A up and B down of the triangle completed on February 24th and April 12th. Wave C up is nearing completion at a suspected target of 1.4025 to 1.4040 of a thrust from a smaller triangle between May 3rd and 7th within wave C. 1.4025 is the post-triangle thrust measurement. Nearby 1.4040 happens to be the point where wave C would be 0.618 of what wave B was.
After wave C completes, wave D down would commence. It seems that 1.3810 to 1.3818 is a likely target for wave D, as it would be 0.382 of wave B while also 0.618 of predicted wave C. Wave D may bottom in late May, and wave E peak in early June, if the timespan for each successive wave continues at a rate of around 0.618 the time of the preceding wave.
If that all holds true, the downside target for the thrust of the 5th wave (completing either wave 3 or perhaps only the first wave of wave 3 down) might reach down into the 1.11 area, then followed by further consolidation and more downside action. If the bearish 4th wave from October 2016 is going to form a contracting triangle, rather than end in 3 waves, then the downside thrust would have to stop and turn up above 1.1414 in order to generate a further wave (D) and (E) before completing a downward thrust most likely much deeper than 1.11.
It did hit and linger around 1.4040 and then began extension after extension of 5th waves, like relentless C waves do. Perhaps it was going for .786 of wave B. It's got something to prove, definitely. All extensions it has made should be retraced swiftly once it does end.