YaKa

EURGBP - Great Config - Macro views Request

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
277 4 5

Technically there is going to be a great buy at 1.4360 and there shall be a rebound.

Without a change in the 20year paradigm it seems 1.35 should retain overall.

My question:
- what are the fundamentals that would justify GBPUSD             Falling to parity?
- If none, what are the fundamentals that would justify GBPUSD             going back to 1.75?
Good questions... The fundamentals that justify GBPUSD going back to 1.75 would problably be related with a weak USD (ex. if bank rate in USA won't be increased will be enough?).
Reply
YaKa Helder Castro
Yes that is a possible outcome: just removing something that is priced in. Yes, possible scneario:
The rate hike is very much expected but if something happens in between that prevents it, it could drag USD lower for the wrong reasons this time.. And this something could be very bad for equities at the same time.
+1 Reply
YaKa Helder Castro
Helder, do you think crude at 25 would be a sufficient game changer to prevent rates hike....
heading there, 16usd away... could do it over 4 weeks.
Reply
Yaka, in fact I would love to be able to answer this question .... but the question is too much for me:-). What I know from what I have been observing for some time, and listening to the experts on the subject, is that if the oil is low -> USD High -> American indexes tend to lower ... but lower rates depend not only on oil, but also on the political and economic policies of banks and governments ... But thank you anyway for the interesting question which make us think and look for the right answers ...
Reply
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