As you can see on the chart price has made an Adam and Eve pattern that got completed by a break above 1.264 at the 7th of Jun. Adam and Eve patterns are some sort of double bottom with a V-shaped bottom on one side and a rounded bottom on the other side of the pattern.
We can see that price came back and retested the 1.264 level last night and held it as support. The rounded retest of the level could be a very good entry for this trade.
The first area of resistance above the pattern is at 1.32 ish which can be a good target for this trade. Although the measured move of the pattern is much higher than that.
Considering the overall weakness of the USD it's possible for the price to hit its target as long as it holds above 1.26. This trade idea has a 5 risks to reward ratio.
Good luck trading :)
Trade closed manually
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closed below the support level, looks like a deviation now. -0.5R
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update after getting stopped out: stop was at a very good level, price down trended since getting stopped out, the loss would be much bigger I shouldn't cut it short.
As a Technical trader, I can not be 100% sure about anything. :)
All I can do is to identify statistical setups that generate profit over time and have a decent risk to reward ratio. I can generate profit if I consistently take these setups no matter what happens to an individual trade. That's why you should have well-defined risk management and position sizing strategy if you wanna be a technical trader.