(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) offers clear structure to work with on the monthly timeframe, with the latter prompting a notable upper shadow in June.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008, placing 1.1904/1.2235 support in a vulnerable position.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Buyers and sellers, as you can see, continue to mingle below the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2696. Several candlestick patterns emerged over the week, however, providing a mixture of bullish and bearish signals.
Demand at 1.2192/1.2361 remains in view, as does supply from 1.3021/1.2844, situated above the aforesaid simple moving average.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
After splitting channel support (1.2257) on the H4 timeframe, two core areas became available, demand at 1.2462/1.2506 and supply from 1.2720/1.2682. The former already made its presence known last Tuesday, generously rebounding price by way of a bullish engulfing candle.
Additional areas of interest fall in at support from 1.2453 and peaks (red oval) around 1.2667, which may delay price from reaching the aforesaid supply zone.
H1 timeframe:
Leaving 1.25 unopposed, US trade entertained a recovery play Friday, pulling the H1 candles above 1.2550 resistance and the 100-period simple moving average.
To the north of price, we have the 1.26 level to contend with, shadowed by supply coming in from 1.2627/1.2604.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly price is currently sandwiched between trendline resistance and support from 1.1904/1.2235.
The 200-day simple moving average at 1.2696 on the daily timeframe may make an appearance this week and provide resistance, though traders will also have eyes on demand at 1.2192/1.2361 and supply from 1.3021/1.2844.
Short term:
1.26 offers valid resistance on the H1 this week, yet traders may want to note the possibility of a whipsaw forming through the round number into H1 supply coming in from 1.2627/1.2604. A H1 close beneath 1.26, after testing the aforesaid supply, would likely serve as a bearish signal towards at least the 100-period simple moving average.
Should we reach as far south as 1.25 on the H1 this week, a recovery from the base is a possibility, having seen the round number align with the upper boundary of H4 demand at 1.2506.