Next week is a very important week for financial market with lot of economic data are released.
We have 4 employment reports: - US - Canada - New Zealand - Australia
And 3 central banks meetings: - RBA - BOE - BOJ
I especially concentrate in US Nonfarm payrolls and BOE meeting where I believe those data could trigger a significant move and push volatility as well as volume in FX market
Payrolls is the most important data this week,we only have two payrolls ahead September FED meeting; so the data is considered as an leading indicator for FED decision: any strong number would inrease the opportunity of rate hike and vice versa.
As usual,I will post Payroll heatmap on my page and website : I need more incoming data to finish the heat map specificly ISM PMI + ADP report.
However, I saw the jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1973, so I believe that payrolls would be a positive number and continue support the greenback.
Cable: We have a Inflation report + BOE Meeting + Press Conference on Thursday , so market call it's Super Thursday.
The move of Calbe this month will be decided on Thursday.
What does market expect ?.
- Market want to see BOE to be more hawkish : BOE is expected as the next ' lift-up" central bank following FED., if they disappoint market: market will punish Cable unregretedly and send GBPUSD to 1.500 easily.
In my opinion, 60% BOE will shift their bias to HAWKISH.
AND IF PAYROLLS IS NEGATIVE, GBPUSD COULD SOAR 200-300 PIPS TO RETEST 1.5900
Only 40% BOE choose to stand toward NEUTRAL STANCE.
It's very difficult to pricing GBPUSD next week.
All depend on DATA.
HOWEVER, TO CHOOSE A SIDE AMONG : LONG - NEUTRAL - SHORT
I CHOOSE SHORT.
DESPITE MEMBERS IN MY TEAM CHOOSE LONG.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
GBPUSD sideway in a wedge pattern I draw on the chart.
Strong resistance at 1.5675
A trend line is below the price candlestick.
The blockade is very tight.
It means GBPUSD MUST BREAK THE WEDGE TO CHOOSE A TREND.
A BREAKOUT ABOVE THE RESISTANCE IS ABSOLUTELY UPTREND .
A BREAKOUT BELOW THE TREND LINE IS DEFINITELY DOWNTREND.
RSI indicator shows the same result with the pric action.