We had three weeks of pull back, some consolidation (and from me some hope it would go a bit more higher), but today GBP got another hit, and turned back bearish.
Weekly: - Ichimoku is bearish - Heiin-Ashi showed correction for 2-3 weeks, but now it looks like a bearish reversal again. haDelta/SMA3 crosses down. - EWO is still heavy bearish
Daily: - Quick spike above Kijun, followed by 7 days of range consolidation, and also a weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross turned daily Ichimoku setup closer to neutral. As Price is breaking back below Kijun again, the setup will soon become bearish. - Heikin-Ashi candle made a decision today. Long red body. haDelta/SMA3 also decisively back below zero. HA Oscillator turns bearish. Selling pressure started to increase today. - EWO failed to come back above zero.
How deep the selling will send Cable this time I don't know. Actually we all know the risks of GBP. What will the FED do later this year is another issue. Technically it is bearish. The question now if it makes a lower low below 1,4150, or not. And also worth to watch EWO divergences later.
Strategy: Since I can not be bullish for the USD in general, I am flat now. I had my Call spreads which I closed with reasonable profit when Price reached 1,4600 spot. Since then I bought some outright during last few trading days at 1,4480 avg, and I got stopped today at 1,4400.
Comments
PolarSolar
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May go to 1.4670 area (Senoku Span B) to complete major ABC
Now minor ABC amost complete
Kumowizard
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maybe, but not a good setup now to trade outright swing long.
If you wanna play that, then try to buy a bullish option Call spread for 2-3 months maturity. That's a safer way, even if you make a mistake on the timing initially.
PolarSolar
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...already long (FX) 1.4326*
Reverse on update high - Senoku Span B area or inside Kumo
mid window - Ichimoku oscillator
Gbprider
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buying this pair is suicide attempt , good to buy below 1.39
PolarSolar
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SL works if i wrong - is not no problem
Gbprider
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hmm ur targeting for few pips ?
PolarSolar
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TP 1.48+ from 1.42 is a few pips? 0_o not for me
After ending major ABC (up) of course waiting new lower low, may be 1.39
Gbprider
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hmm told u brought @ 1.4326 , so 1.4326 to 1.48 ? did u notice already major support broken ? also gbp news is not favor for gbp , i dont think it will even touch 1.44 :)
PolarSolar
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Yes broken by wave 2-3. But wave 2-3 (down) is ended and i try to trade retracement 3-4 (up)
Next wave 4-5 must have bullish divergence
Gbprider
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Good luck :) i dont see major upward movement before touching 1.39, it broken the major support & corrective structure , its resume downtrend
Now minor ABC amost complete