GBPUSD has been exhibiting a textbook Lower-High and Lower-Low since June of 2014.
The most recent lower-high was in April of 2018 and price made a lower-low in March of 2020.
Since March of 2020, price has been in an uptrend and has not made a lower high than the April 2018 high, IN FACT, price has reached the same high of April 2018.
This is a potentially decisive moment for the Pound's road to 1.50
My technical analysis shows divergence on the 12H TF, couple that with the BOE's decision to raise rates in 2022, there could be a good rally up for the Sterling.
IF price breaks over the high of April 2018, we could be looking at a strong uptrend.
Let me know what you guys think, I'm more than happy to hear a different opinion. <3
I humbly disagree, i think before it goes any higher, 1.37 - 1.36 has to be hit first, taking long positions before that doesn't make sense to me.
harveytiven
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@Hammoud8721, thanks for sharing your analysis. I'll keep an open mind going into July.
I noticed price is currently below the trendline which has held for months, could we be looking at a further continuation to the downside?
Hammoud8721
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@harveytiven, Yes at least for the short term, you see that purple line that you drew somewhere around 1.365, that line will get tested and wicked through for sure, there's a lot of money and liquidity sitting under that low, lots of stop losses for any long positions and lots of pending orders for short positions cuz once price is under that everyone will want to sell at the retest. so in my opinion that low will get hit for sure to grab all those sell orders (once there's enough sell orders then the banks can buy up all the sells and price will go up) then we will see what price tells us, if they start accumulating then we will expect higher prices, if they redistribute then we look for lower prices. But i seriously would hold off buying for now, for price to go where you want it to go, we need to grab liquidity first, and we need retail sellers for the banks to be able to buy, and the sellers are sitting under that purple line. I took sells on July 28 at around 1.392 during London session and I'm holding till 1.37, then i will wait and see what price tells me.
zoedian
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1.39000 will be key testing but i do agree its going to challenge buy area next week
harveytiven
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@zoedian, thanks for your sharing your thoughts, you think we're going to see that this week or later?
zoedian
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@harveytiven, if the GBP PMI is positive 1.39-1.4 is no problem this week, but with no news its likely to first test 1.387-1.39 within this week by technicals