This is a follow up and an expansion on our GBPUSD chart posted last week (see link to related ideas below).
The recent rejection of $1.5660/1.5700 has resulted in a loss of the uptrend from the July 8, 9, and 24 lows. In context of the potential longer-term pattern - a bearish rising wedge that commenced with the break in price on July 7 and subsequent rejection of wedge TL support as resistance on July 15 - it looks like the next leg lower in GBPUSD is beginning.
The key level to watch into the end of the week is ~$1.5460, the swing low in the countertrend rally on July 24. A weekly close below this level would offer a confirmation signal for a move lower (further supported by H4 and daily indicators spilling over into bearish territory). Key levels lower to watch come in at ~$1.5315 and ~$1.5160.
Bears may find risk contained to $1.5635, the pre-BoE "Super Thursday" high in price on August 6. Still, with resistance having established itself in the $1.5660/1.5700 area (as noted in the chart from last week), gains may be difficult to come by on the long side; the path of least resistance is lower.
My concern with the short idea is that whilst i agree price is set for further falls, the actual price structure from 13th April is still in tact, even with the two wedge breaks. Consider also that a rate increase is all but confirmed, which is obviously bullish for the pound, i would be more comfortable going long on pull backs and support areas. The pound is in good health which isn't a foundation for shorting.
NQunlocked
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Down is more likely indeed (one more retest of that broken black line first?)