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It is now at the support of the channel and it could not descend more than such, so it will rise according to the scenario that you set, touching the channel's resistance, then falling again.
Good analysis, I am also watching this down trend, although the bullish trend starting from 23 of September shouldn't be ignored as the mentioned support channel is also the support channel of the bullish trend. If the price exits the down trend I am positive it will test the 1.35 level again which is a major resistance level as well as the resistance line of the bullish trend channel from September.