FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
294 4 36
...
Comment: any comments ?
i think cable is a big ball of uncertainty until the 23rd of june.. anything past the 23rd is pure speculation IMO.

Because of brexit, cable risks are skewed heavily to the downside <1.40... if they dont leave EURO GU may recover to 1.47 but not much more as the fed will be much more hawkish if they dont hike in june 16th already - GU (unlike EU) has proven to be extremely sensitive to FOMC policy changes.

so, upside after 23rd is capped to 1.48 IMO, yet downside, if they leave WILL ride us all the way down to either 1.36.8 or 1.34 - they Support levels that exist there.

Reasoning being that GU already made lows at 1.38 and that was WITHOUT all the uncertainty of leaving the EUROZONE will make.

TBH we could even go lower than 1.34 if UK leaves but i wont discuss them tail risks too much :P
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QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading
plus the fed will be more hawkish if UK DONT leave.. so its a no win for GU imo.. either UK leaves and GU tanks to >1.38 OR UK STAYS and the FOMC is more hawkish for a june/july hike thus putting a cap on cable at 1.48.
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THAT CHART IS WAY TOO BUSY
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