RichardEdwards
Long

Potential Long GBP/USD

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
154 views
4
I am considering a long term buy at 1.4700. The price is within a large rising channel that may see the price return back up to the 1.7 region which is still pretty modest when the exchange rate between 2006 - 2008 was in the region of 2.100 dollars to the pound sterling . The exchange rate has never sustained anything below 1.4 so it seems to me that is may be a good physiological level for buying.

Fundamentally the GBP isn't doing great at the moment and the latest quarterly inflation report suggested that inflation is likely to remain at below 1% until the second half of 2016 which is below their 2% target. I think this trade will be dependant on the US Federal Reserve disappointing with the amount of rate hikes suggested in 2016. It could at least re-test the 1.5900 highs of 2015 but we can't afford any disappointing data from the UK.

A question I have to myself is do I buy at 1.4700 and get out if I have a weekly close below the lower channel trend line , or do I wait for a confirmation such as the price moving below 1.4700 and closing back above the trend line i.e. a lower wick testing the support. Risk to reward is brilliant for this set-up but risk reward is irrelevant if you are picking a losing trade.

I appreciate everyone's constructive feedback and whether anyone can develop on this idea.

Comments

Your view on GBP/USD is spot on. Bravo
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