GBP/USD - Channel Breakout Setup

Oct 2

GBP/USD is attempting a bullish reversal from the 1.31931–1.32130 support zone after an extended decline inside a descending channel. A sustained move above this level would strengthen the recovery case toward 1.33912 and then 1.34445.

The chart also shows price moving back above the lower channel structure, while the recent reaction from support suggests buyers are defending the area. However, a failure to hold 1.32130 would weaken the bullish structure and bring 1.31931/1.31797 back into focus.

The 0.618 Fibonacci level is 1.33970, closely aligned with the first resistance area at 1.33912.
The 0.786 Fibonacci level is 1.34554, making the 1.34445 region an important higher resistance and target zone.

Target Levels:
1st Resistance - 1.33912
2nd Resistance - 1.34445

📰 Fundamentals and Live Headlines:
1. U.S. September NFP came in at just 29K vs 90K expected, while unemployment increased to 4.2%, reducing near-term expectations for another Fed hike.

Thank you.

7 days ago

Trade active

7 days ago

Note

US jobs growth was weak, The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, much lower than expected and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.

Hammack said the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is October 27–28. So, the comments suggest the Fed does not need to rush into another rate hike.

6 days ago

Note

The market has pulled in two opposite directions:

1. Risk-off / geopolitical side: Ukraine, Iran, French fiscal stress and expensive oil favour USD, CHF and JPY.

2. Disinflation / easing side: emergency oil-stock releases and the lower probability of an October Fed hike reduce some of that USD advantage.

5 days ago

Note

Bank of England (BoE) effect markets were also expecting the Bank of England to raise rates further — roughly 30 basis points by the end of 2026 and about 90 basis points by the end of 2027. Higher expected UK interest rates can support GBP because investors may get better returns from UK assets.

4 days ago

Note

Catherine Mann's message is hawkish because she believes UK inflation is becoming persistent and could reach around 4%. She thinks the Bank of England may need to raise interest rates further, and markets are already expecting a possible November hike. That expectation is helping support the British pound.