Daily view: Similar to the , the shows buying pressure coming in from the base of the aforementioned weekly demand area. However, the next objective to reach on this timeframe falls in at a daily swap zone coming in at 1.5478-1.5435.
4hr view: Sterling’s recent advance eventually saw price take out 1.5300 and continue on up towards a small 4hr supply area seen at 1.5368-1.5349. Unfortunately for us, there was no opportunity to enter on the break of 1.5300 without buying the breakout itself – breakout trading agrees with a lot of people but not with us!
We mentioned in our previous report that we believed the current 4hr supply area may be weak from Friday’s NFP spike seen marked with a black arrow at 1.5357. As such, we’re not going to be looking to short this zone today. For anyone that believes a bounce will take place from here, we would advise waiting for lower timeframe confirming price action just to be on the safe side.
In the event that we are correct with our analysis, price will likely continue to rally and connect with the 1.5400 barrier later on, which is somewhere we expect a reaction to be seen. Check out the two red arrows on this chart. The way 1.5400 held the market lower here was very impressive! With that being said, take a look across to the ; see how the wicks that projected above 1.5400 collided beautifully with the daily swap zone at 1.5478-1.5435. This is something we all need to be prepared for again here guys if we look to short 1.5400. It’s a perfect fakeout scenario!
With all the above in mind, we personally would want to see a pin-bar candle form around 1.5400 today (essentially another fakeout), as this would essentially be our trigger to enter short.
Levels to watch/ live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sells: 1.5400 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: depends on how deep the fakeout is).