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The new research comes as the U.K. government debates what kind of trade deal it will seek, before talks on the future relationship start in March. Given the U.K.’s red lines on getting control of EU immigration and breaking free from the rulings of European judges, the EU side has said it can only offer a trade deal similar to the one it gave Canada. That accord was the best in its class, but would be a downgrade from the access Britain now enjoys, particularly for the financial services industry.
As the terms of the future trading relationship become clear, there’s a risk of rebellion in the pro-Brexit camp, which is already uneasy about the size of the divorce bill.