If you are following me on Telegram (t.me/timmynorin) you saw my entry and targets this morning on GBPUSD.
We had a double bottom, with several failed attempts to close below 1.2400 - together with heavily oversold conditions and a historically strong support and resistance area. A good case.
What I was looking for was a pullback that we could profit from with 2 targets.
I entered at Z, target 1 is already hit, profit booked and stop loss moved to break even. My risk to reward is shown on chart.
When we also saw that dragonfly doji candle right after my entry, this case was already closed - the pullback was inevitable.
However, the train has not completely left yet as we could get another possibility to enter (see X mark). That entry is based on a 2618, if that is a strategy that you use to base your entry.
I will not enter again since Im already in, but I wanted to share the idea.
Keep in mind, this is currently a bearish train. We're just looking to catch a station before jumping off again.
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Price just brushed our target 2 before it went back down to retest 1.2400 - which means we have bagged 40 pips on this trade, but the remaining position got stopped out at break even / or minor profit.
There might still be some money on the table here since we have once again failed to close below (see doji on hourly) 1.2400. We also have a 4 hour candle closing soon which has, so far, rejected 1.2400 aswell.
Stayed out of this one as I was a little wary of Britex and article 50 letter yesterday.
Nice trade though :)
timmynorin
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@praxis99, could be a wise decision. I tend to avoid looking at fundamentals unless it poses a huge or significant volatility, like NFP, FOMC statements and such. But in many cases, most news are already written into the chart. Staying out during these big news events could save you in a long run, no need to dwell over one single missed opportunity :) Could've been the opposite aswell.
maho2003
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@timmynorin, I would like to ask you, if I follow the bollinger at asian market there is no news can I sell from top and buy from bottom of bollinger on tf 1 h? What do you think?
timmynorin
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Hi @maho2003! That really depends... I can only speak for myself here, but I would not use one indicator alone to decide whether to buy or sell. For example - a hit at the top of the bollinger bands could just as easily signal a strong bullish cycle, which would not be the right time to sell (depending on your strategy of course). However if several factors line up, like price running into a historically strong support/resistance area, while also running out of momentum together with an overbought condition, and then lets add a final confirmation to that like candlestick formations - this is a setup I would involve myself in since we have so many things signaling us that the market is most likely about to take a breather, or even reverse completely.
So to sum it up, if I were you, I would add something more to confirm what the bollinger bands are telling you.
Hope it makes sense, good luck!
SaeedRehman
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Boom - That's how it's done. Clockwork precision :)
maho2003
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I saw your idea after I bought already GBPUSD this morning from 1.24116 and set my target 1.247. Thank god the train destination same as mine and got the profit :)
Love the explanation. I too am in this trade from this morning, gutted the price has pulled back, but hopefully it will rise to book some more profit
timmynorin
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Thank you @SaeedRehman, and yes - shame we came so close to target 2. But every now and then we will miss a target with that meazly pip, just like we will just miss a stop loss before turning into profit. :)
SaeedRehman
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@timmynorin, I totally agree and know the feeling :( -- FYI- I am still long with a stop at 1.2393. Fingers crossed
Nice trade though :)