Sforex
Short

Cable: Data determine the move

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
259 0 4
Next 24h, the key data regarding to Cable/Dollat are:

- UK CPI            
- US Retail Sales

According to my calculation, I think the UK CPI             would be negative, and US Retail Sales could be positive.

The divergence between UK CPI             and US Retail Sale likely hit hard to GBPUSD             and drive this pair lower.

On the other hand, if UK CPI             is positive, and US Retail Sales is negative, the game changes : GBPUSD             soars as a result.

Remerber that,if US Retal Sales is negative, most likely US CPI             on Friday will follow the data: Negative, and this will destroy any hope for a meaningful rally of USDollar             , and the rate hike expect is reduced significantly.

Hence, US Retail Sales tomorrow is very important.

However, to choose a move , I choose the downside for Cable.

- Technical Analysis

+ Last week, I talked about the trend line , and I waited for the breakout.

The breakout actually happened as I expect, but right after that Cable bounce back and retest the trend line .

Once, GBPUSD             bounce from the intersection between two trend lines I draw on the chart.

GBPUSD             still hold below the trend line .

The downside risk still remains.

I think the downside should continue.

The target I choose is 1.5330
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