I have already updated you regarding British Pound on EG call. Soon I will update you about USD... Regards, KHAN
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10 Yrs UK Gilts, Yields and Bonds all made pin bars!
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UK Yields, See the rejection bar
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Same with Gilts
Bounced of the key supports
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1.345 is the 38.2% of the Fibo from 2017 low to 2018 high. Let's see if that can stop it ...
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I still do not like the look of the 4hrs candle but it seems for now 1.345 was resistance.
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A big spike down on US Yields...
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Let's see if hourly USD weighted average can break this falling trend line...
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Manufacturing production stats are very weak !
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Manufacturing has been a relative bright spot for the UK economy ever since the Brexit vote of June 2016, But it seems this one is also fading...
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Friday's low has been taken away and Flag is getting broken...
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Sterling steady despite the worst manufacturing and exporting data for the last 5 years!
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USD weighted average on 1 hour time frame has broken 1) Wedge formation (in pink) 2) Inverted H&S ( in green) 3) Falling channel (in blue) and bouncing off the lower band of the flag formation (see the charts above to see the red Flag).
"We look for CPI to ease to 2.3% y/y in May, which leaves us a bit below consensus and BoE forecasts of 2.4% y/y," says Jacqui Douglas, chief European macro strategist at TD Securities. "This may see a bit of weakness in GBP, but we do think that the activity data is a lot more important right now than a tenth here or there on the inflation data."
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I doubt BoE hike rate in August.
See the 6 Months GBPUSD, The last candle is still open and will close in 2 weeks. A nice shooting star.
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First resistance for USD
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US 2 years Yields getting back to highs again.
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What a week for Sterling :)
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UK 10 Years bonds bounced off the key support levels as expected Same with Gilts and UK 10 years Yields
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Watch this megaphone pattern again...
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Second resistance up there for USD
After that nothing can stop USD imo
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Done, It got to there, we shall see a break of the Flag tomorrow or next week.
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Seems finally it is going to break that megaphone pattern
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We shall be seeing a breakout on Sterling weighted average in half an hour when the UK market is open. I like to see the breakout to the wrong side first (upside) and then hopefully lower ...
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UK 10 years Yields opened with a very bearish candle. Same opposite candles for Bonds and Gilts. This was expected.
Trade closed: target reached
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Dear Friends, Target filed on this post but I am still in the trade. Thanks for following me. Regards,
KHAN
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I see a big drop in Sterling early next week. Have a great weekend colleagues, What a week it was for me :))
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As expected GBPUSD started the week with a gap lower and now is trading around 0.27% lower at 1.3279. We have the BoE rate decision this week and I doubt they go with another rate hike in August. Brexit is in focus and this week we do not have many risk events for GBP. Hence we focus more on technical.
UK Yields continuing lower as forecasted
and Gilts and Bonds appreciating
Also see how beautifully this pair offers congestions of Fibos on the way down. These are my targets for the next a few weeks.
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UK markets opened very bearish on GBP
The above is Yields. Gilts opened 0.5% up too.
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Another great textbook example of a false breakout of a wedge formation. Most of the time these formations break to the opposite side of the trend.
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I think GBPUSD short going to surprise everybody. GBP is flat and we see this drop in GBPUSD, what if we see a bearish sterling !
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BXY
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Good morning friends. As expected GBPUSD made a new lower low today and it is interesting to know that this pair is just reflecting the USD appreciation and no GBP depreciation as GBP has been flat for the last 2 weeks.
Today I am waiting for the BoE meeting and I doubt they hike rate in August due to the recent weak macroeconomic factors. Then I will add more to my Shorts.
Today GBP broke the key 50% Brexit Fibo and I think this pair can get to 1.28, the next major Fibo level. Time Fibo on Yields, Bonds and Gilts suggest a retracement by the end of the first week of July. So my plan is to be bearish for the next a few weeks on this pair.
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Cannot wait for European open :)
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Self-explanatory Shooting start candle on 6 months GBPUSD chart. Candle is open and will close in 2 weeks.
And look at the Bullish engulfing candle on USD equally weighed average 6 months. Just add them up plus take into account Brexit discussion and a possibility of no rate hike in August today!!!
Trade closed manually
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I exited this trade ahead of BoE with 250 pips of profit. As you know and mentioned I entered at 1.3506. I will enter again after the news and probably we are going to see a hard Brexit…
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Great exit. Feeeeeew
It is possible to have a rate hike in August.
9:15 GOV Carney speaks. Watch that...
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GBPUSD is a no trade for now friend. Focus on EURUSD short and leave GBPUSD imo
Khan, this has been a LONG trade, even though it wasn't opened too long ago, it feels like ages. You remember I went long on the beginning?, I'm short now, and this move up is just a very good setup to short it for those who entered late. My 2 cents on this trade are as following:
We can see that dollar is stronger than pound, we had something of a small pullback yesterday and today, but dollar should start going up soon again and it will be nearly unstoppable.
The only danger I see is that the pound has stopped falling and is more sideways than I would like, so if the dollar takes too much time to recover we might see 2 or 3 bars up again before the fall.
I would post the hourly chart, but it's just as you said in your comment, Sterling flew up and still isn't falling, but I believe USD will come up stronger soon enough, in the next hours or tomorrow in crazy friday.
thank you keith