Following is a brief step-wise approach to the refinement I have applied to the Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave (WolfeWave.com) pattern.
Although in his introductory site (WolfeWave.com), Mr. Wolfe insists that no internal geometries needs to supplement this pattern, my encounter with this pattern came originally from a different angle, having discovered my own proprietary pattern (e.g.: Great White, Janus, Euclid, Alt. Shark), as well as other occult market geometry concepts (nodes, nodules and euclidean modules).
So, I had no other fashion to look into this pattern but through the prisms that I had already been wearing since trading and dissecting market shapes, forms and geometries as I started back in 1997.
Concepts such as "Tunneling", "Geo-Anchor", Point-5 ectopia where simple findings that may or may not reiterate lessons or concepts that Mr. Bill Wolfe has shared in private programs, which I never had the chance nor desire to receive, lest I would lose the biases of my own methodologies.
So, let's delve into yet another discussion of this Wolfe Wave, whose point-by-point, and leg by leg analysis will also include simple Elliott Wave principles and bits and parts of my own geometries, despite the interdictions of Mr. Bill Wolfe who asserts that his pattern stands on its own two lines ... To some extend, I have to agree, but the refinements I have added won't hurt the novice and advance trader screening for optimal, rule-based approaches.
Also, as this price action unfolds, I will probably add new targets based on a separate Predictive/Forecasting Method.
Thank you for your readership and eventual contribution.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
13 MAY 2015 - Re-Visiting The Geo From A Top-Down Approach:
As I was explaining earlier, I thought it worth reconsidering the entire geometry, especially whenever price action far exceeds the scale or range of moves originally considered in the analysis. In other words, if price far exceeds the range considered, then a much larger agent is at work at a larger scale.
First, let's look at the recent bearish impulse, using the Elliott Wave principle. What we are seeing is an internal 5-wave down-swing, with the 5th wave terminating at a standard 1.618-Fibonacci extension, as follows:
As was established before, the Elliott Wave consideration if paramount, since our hunt for the Geo occurs at consolidation levels, and we have established a "Spine Rule', which simply makes use of the often straight nature of the 3rd wave impulse as it originates from the termination level of Elliott Wave's 2nd wave. In the chart, there are two such "Spine", drawn as dark purple dash lines.
You will notice that in most cases, the "Spine" that is most adherent to EW's 3rd wave will help herald the emergence of EW's 4th wave. HOWEVER, in the rule we have established, whereby we seek the highest probability of a Geo development, we are best off letting most of, or the entire, Elliott Wave impulse ("IMP") unfold, since it is at the conclusion of such impulse that consolidation will occur, and a consolidation is the primordial environment in which the Geo will emerge. These consolidation areas are referred to corrections in Elliott Wave parlance ("COR"), and such geometries can also be found in the "COR" segments of EW ... In other words, there are other places to wind Geos, and the "COR" environment do not only occur at the termination of IMPs ... There are other places where they would occur, but it would take too long to explain. Simpy refer to ElliottWave.com for the only true and most respected authoritative site, where Mr. Robert Prechter and other associates offer free course on the basic development of EWs.
Now, let's return to the Geo ... As indicated above, the Geo will develop in the conclusion of the IMP, and in this case, we can look at a probable candidates among many others, as follows:
As we are facing the choice of three good contenders, I will take this time to reinterate a rule that I shared on another chart this week, which simply refers to the construction of the internal legs, and how they compare. In essence:
1 - The 1-2 Leg will most often be constructed by a SIMPLE symmetrical ab = cd geometry, or a simple "zig-zag" ("ZZ") in EW terms;
2 - The 2-3 Leg will most often be constructed by a COMPLEX ZZ, such as a Double-ZZ or a Triple-ZZ, or a W-X-Y-XX-Z construction - This is the Leg that will also support the "Geo Anchor Rule" and give shape to the "Tunneling" concept.
3 - The 3-4 Leg will most often negate a prior, false or pseudo-Point-4. You will see that in many nascent Geos, in which a Point-4 appears to be confirmed, but a 3-4 Leg will offer a larger, but Simple ZZ, or a simple, symmetrical ab = cd pattern in which point-c of that pattern will define the true Point-4;
4 - The 4-5, the 3-4 or the 1-2 Legs should be used for Fibonacci extension points, from which a Point-5 might occur at the 1.272, 1.414 or 1.618 extensions
Now, looking at the first rule above, here is why I would chose the following 1-2 Leg:
First, I am considering the highlighted area, as shown:
Admittedly, this area consists of a wave-4 to wave-5, so it is looking at the near-completion of the EW, when we just mentioned that it is best to look at opportunities following the completion of the 5th wave. However, comes to compete against this concept is the fact that the "Spine" has transected that area twice, suggesting that this area might be optimal for a nascent Geo.
Next, I will look for the simple symmetrical ab = cd, which is the feature of the fist construction rule, as follows:
In this first step, I know that the ab =cd will terminate at the nadir of the entire EW IMP, so I can "reverse-engineer" by drawing its cd leg, as follows:
Next, i simply cut/past and see where the top-end of that duplicated segment points to, as follows:
At this point, I have a perfect ab = cd representing the 1-2 Leg, and by definition, Point-1 of the nascent Geo is given as follows:
Worth looking for are discreet price action that gives credence to these 1-3 and 2-4 Lines, and te following arrows seem to confirm this, as follows:
Here, the 1-3 Line received a above/under validation:
... while the 2-4 Line receives a double-support validation:
OVERALL:
While all this comes as a sophisticated explication of the manner that I approach the process of screening through high-probability set-up, it should not be considered a more valid method than one in which you develop your own consistent method. All that I am showing and sharing here is as objective and attainable a means to look for a geometric approach to trading. Combined with our own indicator - if you have to have one - I hope it will greatly enhance the outcome of your trading performance.
I will continue to add comments to the development of this Geo. If it turns out to be consistent and adherent to the underlying geometric development, great. If not, we would move out.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
"United Kingdom: Bank Of England Impications Of Possible EU Exit
May 23, 2015 | 15:36 GMT
The Bank of England said May 23 that it is researching the implications of a British exit from the European Union, confirming information in an email accidentally forwarded to journalists, Reuters reported, citing the Guardian. British Prime Minister David Cameron has said the United Kingdom will hold a referendum on leaving the European Union before 2017."
- Source: STRATFOR/Strategic Forecast, Global Intelligence
4xForecaster
⋅
01 JUN 2015 - Update: Target Hit ...
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
GBPUSD hit narrow-range target per forecast; 1-4 Line validation remains a pending event:
David, it seems 2 wolfe waves are in development, what do you think ?
4xForecaster
⋅
Hello @jpocalles - Yes, this is a very favorable set up. One aspect of the Geo is that the 2-3 Leg is typically a complex Double-ZZor Triple-ZZ (in terms of Elliott Wave internal wave constructions), and for this reason, it is not too far-fetched to expect that the 3-4 Leg is not a 3-4 Leg, but a symmetrical mid-point of the 2-3 Leg (i.e.: your current 2-3 Leg might possibly only be the half-way segment of the entire leg, such that Point-3 would reside a bit further.
The smaller Geo responded well to the Of-Set Rule, as price remains aloft the 1-4 Line, but did come into the zone of Point-4.
A departure above 1.53757 (recent high approximation) might take on the shape of an Elliott Wave impulse, pushing price to the level of your Point-5 ... Look for symmetry developing beyond this point, repeating the current 2-3 Leg (BLACK in your chart) morphology, across the current 3-4 Leg (BLACK in your chart) as a line of symmetry.
Thank you for your suggestion. This is a promising one.
David Alcindor
Fib.The.Gentleman
⋅
Just Wow... thanks for so much time and effort being put in that one! :)
Thank you for noticing and reading through the material.
David
4xForecaster
⋅
13 MAY 2015 - Addendum:
So, as of this writing, here is how the chart would appear, considering the potential nascence of this Geo:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
13 MAY 2015 - Tech-Note:
Now how the "Tunneling" concept remains consistent, despite the transecting of the 2-3, 3-4 and 4-5 Legs, where the respective bars/candles are seeming leaping over a "pre-scient safe passage" of the 1-4 Line, way before the Geo would ever be deciphered:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
22 MAY 2015 - Update:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
GBPUSD slides through Geo; Remains intent on 1.51876 target; Model churns out lower target:
As I was explaining earlier, I thought it worth reconsidering the entire geometry, especially whenever price action far exceeds the scale or range of moves originally considered in the analysis. In other words, if price far exceeds the range considered, then a much larger agent is at work at a larger scale.
First, let's look at the recent bearish impulse, using the Elliott Wave principle. What we are seeing is an internal 5-wave down-swing, with the 5th wave terminating at a standard 1.618-Fibonacci extension, as follows:
As was established before, the Elliott Wave consideration if paramount, since our hunt for the Geo occurs at consolidation levels, and we have established a "Spine Rule', which simply makes use of the often straight nature of the 3rd wave impulse as it originates from the termination level of Elliott Wave's 2nd wave. In the chart, there are two such "Spine", drawn as dark purple dash lines.
You will notice that in most cases, the "Spine" that is most adherent to EW's 3rd wave will help herald the emergence of EW's 4th wave. HOWEVER, in the rule we have established, whereby we seek the highest probability of a Geo development, we are best off letting most of, or the entire, Elliott Wave impulse ("IMP") unfold, since it is at the conclusion of such impulse that consolidation will occur, and a consolidation is the primordial environment in which the Geo will emerge. These consolidation areas are referred to corrections in Elliott Wave parlance ("COR"), and such geometries can also be found in the "COR" segments of EW ... In other words, there are other places to wind Geos, and the "COR" environment do not only occur at the termination of IMPs ... There are other places where they would occur, but it would take too long to explain. Simpy refer to ElliottWave.com for the only true and most respected authoritative site, where Mr. Robert Prechter and other associates offer free course on the basic development of EWs.
Now, let's return to the Geo ... As indicated above, the Geo will develop in the conclusion of the IMP, and in this case, we can look at a probable candidates among many others, as follows:
As we are facing the choice of three good contenders, I will take this time to reinterate a rule that I shared on another chart this week, which simply refers to the construction of the internal legs, and how they compare. In essence:
1 - The 1-2 Leg will most often be constructed by a SIMPLE symmetrical ab = cd geometry, or a simple "zig-zag" ("ZZ") in EW terms;
2 - The 2-3 Leg will most often be constructed by a COMPLEX ZZ, such as a Double-ZZ or a Triple-ZZ, or a W-X-Y-XX-Z construction - This is the Leg that will also support the "Geo Anchor Rule" and give shape to the "Tunneling" concept.
3 - The 3-4 Leg will most often negate a prior, false or pseudo-Point-4. You will see that in many nascent Geos, in which a Point-4 appears to be confirmed, but a 3-4 Leg will offer a larger, but Simple ZZ, or a simple, symmetrical ab = cd pattern in which point-c of that pattern will define the true Point-4;
4 - The 4-5, the 3-4 or the 1-2 Legs should be used for Fibonacci extension points, from which a Point-5 might occur at the 1.272, 1.414 or 1.618 extensions
Now, looking at the first rule above, here is why I would chose the following 1-2 Leg:
First, I am considering the highlighted area, as shown:
Admittedly, this area consists of a wave-4 to wave-5, so it is looking at the near-completion of the EW, when we just mentioned that it is best to look at opportunities following the completion of the 5th wave. However, comes to compete against this concept is the fact that the "Spine" has transected that area twice, suggesting that this area might be optimal for a nascent Geo.
Next, I will look for the simple symmetrical ab = cd, which is the feature of the fist construction rule, as follows:
In this first step, I know that the ab =cd will terminate at the nadir of the entire EW IMP, so I can "reverse-engineer" by drawing its cd leg, as follows:
Next, i simply cut/past and see where the top-end of that duplicated segment points to, as follows:
At this point, I have a perfect ab = cd representing the 1-2 Leg, and by definition, Point-1 of the nascent Geo is given as follows:
Worth looking for are discreet price action that gives credence to these 1-3 and 2-4 Lines, and te following arrows seem to confirm this, as follows:
Here, the 1-3 Line received a above/under validation:
... while the 2-4 Line receives a double-support validation:
OVERALL:
While all this comes as a sophisticated explication of the manner that I approach the process of screening through high-probability set-up, it should not be considered a more valid method than one in which you develop your own consistent method. All that I am showing and sharing here is as objective and attainable a means to look for a geometric approach to trading. Combined with our own indicator - if you have to have one - I hope it will greatly enhance the outcome of your trading performance.
I will continue to add comments to the development of this Geo. If it turns out to be consistent and adherent to the underlying geometric development, great. If not, we would move out.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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