GBP fallen to 1.19 then retraced back to 1.27 that is 0.236 fibo.
In my perception GBP will move slightly up in Jan & Feb.
However, in March T.May will officially approve Brexit and GBP will strongly go down!
Trade active
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Published that chart 21 ays ago and so far everything was going fine. However, due to various circumstances my opinion has changed!
Looks like Trump does not want to have a strong Dollar, it means he will try to devaluate US currency and will trigger escape of investors to other currencies or commodities. Soon DXY may go strongly down while GBP/USD may reverse and Pound will strengthen. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's policies will cause stock market to collapse.
If that will happen then it's better to keep your savings in physical precious metals rather than paper currency or paper gold or silver.
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If Brexit will actually happen, this may be one of the reasons why GBP will sink:
Hi Simon, you mentioned "If that will happen then it's better to keep your savings in physical precious metals rather than paper currency or paper gold or silver."
why do u think paper gold / silver is not a good choice?
BhaktaBasics
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Your charts and original ideas are fine. I wouldn't worry too much about fundamentals as we can't guess what Trump will say or do next, let alone the markets reaction to him. The charts are saying that DXY has been moving in a corrective fashion and so the next impulsive move should be up. This view aligns well with GBPUSD, EURUSD, Silver and Gold topping out soon and heading south.
@Simon_says, Exactly. Your update suggested you had changed your mind on that due to some fundamentals, hence my post. Your original idea is most likely in my opinion. The big breakdown in the $ will come but i think we have one more impulse up (initially to 106 level but possibly to 110 level) before that happens. Of course, only time will tell.
Simon_says
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@BhaktaBasics, Thanks for your comments, maybe I'm overreacting. Let's wait and see what will happen next. If market will become going down I want to invest strongly in physical gold and silver, not sure about 'paper' gold, I don't trust brokers. What are your ideas for investments in recession?
BhaktaBasics
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@Simon_says, The obvious answer is gold/silver but a quick look back to the last financial crisis and you will notice that gold/silver went down with stock markets. They say cash is king but these days all countries are busy devaluing their currencies so it's a messed up world we live in.
Looking at charts alone and trying to avoid the noise of fundamentals, i see a huge buying opportunity coming up this year for gold and particularly silver. These have been in a bear market since 2011 and are nearing a bottom. I would post a chart but they all seem to have crashed on TradingView.
Simon_says
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@BhaktaBasics, My plot 24 weeks old, would you expect something like that?
BhaktaBasics
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@Simon_says, Yes, exactly what my chart looks like. My gold chart looks more convincing and suggests we will head down to 900-1000 in the next wave and then find a bottom (in a big ABC correction from 2011) before the next major bull market takes off. It's near impossible to time tops/bottoms exactly so i'll start averaging in when we're in the zone.
BhaktaBasics
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@BhaktaBasics, The charts are working now. Here's my long term gold chart.
Simon_says
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@BhaktaBasics, Nice plot, I will keep an eye on your work!
why do u think paper gold / silver is not a good choice?