The threat on the long term chart is unpleasant for GBP, 1.15xx and 1.05xx have been set up.
Just at the right moment, because BOE cannot now recapture the short-end of the rate curve with inflation still to reach his goal. To open things up, a simple test below 1.175x is all that is needed with Jackson to unlock the flow; a textbook swing ever since we saw restraint at 1.40xx.
If 1.175x is taken then 1.15xx is next to account, leaving 1.05xx wide open for this to collapse like a house of cards. After 1.15xx, I suspect the helplessness of buyers will be quite touching. This swing position is technically very similar to the previous GBP waterfalls we traded together with Brexit, Elections etc, a classical momentum move.
The prognosis for the Jackson flow seems quite good for sellers (not overwhelmingly so for those who are still sidelined). A test of the barricade at 1.19xx seems manageable, and where I am actively looking to add shorts, because for that the buyers would have been exhausted. Please note, invalidation only with closes above 1.20xx.
A master plan! Let's see how our counter attack move plays out.
Trade active
⋅
Comment
⋅
1.159x low.... a good time to start taking some chips off the table...
yes, gu down! tapped 1.19 perfectly and dropped to the 1.17s where i took some nice profits, more downside for gu ahead, load up your shorts! the reaction at 1.19 came from a high volume cluster in a downtrend during august 18/19, easily seen in a volume profile