This Analysis is inline with our Fundamental Outlook for the 3rd Week of November
Hacking the Fundamentals
UK's Inflation was singled out as the main reason for BoE's decision to delay hiking rates. The BoE has also forecasted that it might take longer for Inflation to recover. The CPI y/y that will be released an hour from now is expected to deflate by -0.1%. But because BoE knows something we don't know, this could even post lower. A lower reading would put more pressure on the GBP as it supports BoE's dovishness.
Hacking the Technicals
Since we are expecting the GBP to get weaker as a result of the CPI release, we're looking at 1.5195 as an ideal support->resistance area. There was also a break in market structure to the downside, which signals the start of a downtrend.
Trading the GBPUSD
Ideal Entry: 1.5195
Stop Loss: 1.5215 +20pips
Target: 1.5100 +95pips
Risk Reward: 1:4.75
Main Driver: Weaker than expected CPI release
Reason for Loss: Surprisingly Stronger CPI Release
Conviction: 6/10
Hacking the Fundamentals
UK's Inflation was singled out as the main reason for BoE's decision to delay hiking rates. The BoE has also forecasted that it might take longer for Inflation to recover. The CPI y/y that will be released an hour from now is expected to deflate by -0.1%. But because BoE knows something we don't know, this could even post lower. A lower reading would put more pressure on the GBP as it supports BoE's dovishness.
Hacking the Technicals
Since we are expecting the GBP to get weaker as a result of the CPI release, we're looking at 1.5195 as an ideal support->resistance area. There was also a break in market structure to the downside, which signals the start of a downtrend.
Trading the GBPUSD
Ideal Entry: 1.5195
Stop Loss: 1.5215 +20pips
Target: 1.5100 +95pips
Risk Reward: 1:4.75
Main Driver: Weaker than expected CPI release
Reason for Loss: Surprisingly Stronger CPI Release
Conviction: 6/10
Order cancelled:
Well, it didn't hit our entry, and even if it did, I would have canceled it because the CPI data was slightly better than expected. We now expect the GBP strengthen temporarily.
