In my previous analysis on this pair, I mentioned that there were 4 patterns that were pointing at PA moving up. Well. recent PA wiped out a couple of those patterns and left the other ones wondering what did they ever do wrong to get so abused! So like any good trader, I went and drank a couple of beers to get buzzed so I could see the squiggly lines in a different way. If I lived in Colorado, I might've smoked up a little, too!
Anyway, enough of the bad jokes and let me not waste the LIMITED space they give me to actually write something constructive you'd want to read. The chart. Yep, it certainly look like I did this chart while drunk, doesn't it? Crazy lines going every which way. But when you see such crazy lines, then you know it MUST be a consolidation! If you are confused as to what is happening, first thing you should think is CONSOLIDATION! After all, no one is confused when prices are moving in a straight line. Which they will be very soon I think....or maybe not.
In the chart above, what you are seeing is MY wave count as to what COULD be happening. This consolidation is unfolding in a "double 3" corrective combo wave. Keep in mind that this particular consolidation wave, as per my WAVE COUNT (yes, all have their own INTERNAL wave counts!) is part of a larger wave 3 that is already under way! Yes, that's right. By my wave count, we are ALREADY IN A WAVE 3. And this is could be the ending of the wave 2 of the larger wave (3). So that means that where prices are RIGHT NOW (as of the time of this posting) is probably the best place to get in with minimal risk and draw down! If my count is correct.
If it's NOT correct and the consolidation is still on, then there will be a triangle coming up and prices should still NOT go lower than they are now. On the chart, I have labeled a "make--or-break" point for what I think is happening which serves as a good S/L for a entry right now. If this S/L is broken, then I will re-assess again what might be happening and what is the next move. Anyway, the risk;reward for this trade is phenomenal if it works out.
OVERVIEW - DAILY CHART
CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
Simple. I've already added another full LONG position as I think this is a great spot to take a risk on. Even if wrong, the loss is minimal. It's rare to be able to get in on the very beginning of a wave 3. I plan to take full advantage but of course as always, well within my overall MM and trading plan. I would never "bet the house" on any trade! I can ALWAYS be wrong!
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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Year-to-date Profits: +5,794 pips.
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