Predictive/Forecasting Model refined the original target from 1.44396 (defined on April 10th) to now the following qualitative targets:
1 - TG-Lo = 1.45041 - 21 APR 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 1.44341 - 21 APR 2015
For the record, following is the former target:
(Source: )
From a market geo viewpoint, a nascent geometry is likely to cap the current rally to a level that will probably remained below the recent structural high (YELLOW star).
Note that Point-4 is only speculative at this point (RED star), as price continues to negotiate its way up along a possible "tunneling", through which 1-4 Line would tend to traverse. This tunneling is aided by the internal Geo Anchor" which typically occurs at the inflection along the 2-3 leg.
OVERALL: Bearish. Invalidation would occur upon breaching the parallel of the 1-3 Line off of Point-2 (not shown in the chart, but it should remain apparent that this geo demands that 1-3 and 2-4 Lines be ipsi-directional and convergent.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
21 APR 2015 GBPUSD Hi David. Possibly just completed Point 5 of a WW?
4xForecaster
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Hello @iefan - I am still waiting for the lower targets to get visited, if ever. I posted a candidate geometry, but the recent upsurge made it invalid.
I believe that what you have is a much better, promising candidate, based in several quality factors:
1 - 1-3 Line is distinc relative to its validation of the 5th point, which almost always comes at a shorter distance relative to Point-3 than Point-3 does relative to Point-1 - This is due to the next quality factor ...
2 - The 2-3 is long. It usually is a lot more insidious, contorted, but I believe that its straight nature may have something to do with price's reaction once Point-5 is validated ... Something I am still collecting and verifying.
3 - The "Tunneling" works great. There are three contenders to define Point-4 as its anchor along the 2-4 Line, and I agree here, that the more internal "Geo Anchor" should be considered if it brings the 1-4 Line to a closer level relative to Point-5 (i.e.: less to travel from Point-5 to the 1-4 Line, to optimize the trade outcome). But, here there is no good internal "Geo Anchor, and therefore, you have chosen to place the 1-4 Line relative to the closest validation point among all three for Point-4, thus affording a closer 1-4 Line relative to Point-5 - That's exactly the rationale I would have applied here, whether this went through your head or not.
As a visual security, I would keep adding a dashed 2-4 Line off of Point-3, as a visual reminder of a potential attainment, if Point-5 was to express itself via an ectopic 5-prime position, but also as a visual reminder of a fair and structure-based Stop-Loss, in which case, the "Off-Set Rule" would apply, generating a target not along the 1-4 Line, but at the price level corresponding to Point-4, as you already know.
Hi David. Probable decline due to WW, are you still expecting a test of the above TG - Lo area as published originally? Thank you
4xForecaster
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Hello @iefan - I have changed some of the Geo to comply to a slight rule, whereby the 1-2 Leg represents a symmetrical ab = cd. Projections from that simple geometric origin adds further validation levels.
I will build the chart and try to explain its basic construction in a stepwise fashion.
David
4xForecaster
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24 APR 2015 - Update:
* * * Analysis No Longer Valid * * *
Will produce a new chart shortly; watch 1.52270 for potential reversal - Possible geo. development as well.
David Alcindor
iefan
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Hi David
Could a larger WW be developing? Thank you for your continued and valued tuition.
4xForecaster
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@iefan - Tday is 13 MAY 2015 ... I did not see your query til now.
Yes, as just posted below (without a chart), I have been following a larger geo on this pair, at the DAILY level. A 4-hour or 8-hour chart will do, but the gist occurs at the daily level ... Posting that chart very soon.
David Alcindor