JasperForex
Long

GBPUSD: As Simple as ABCD?

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
The Cable dropped 240 pips last week and over 600 pips (!) the last 9 days without any fundamental reason I can find related to the UK economy or BoE, apart from some purchasing managers' indices missing their expectation. Last Wednesday the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change missed expectation, signalling a potential miss of NFP on Friday, which did indeed happen. NFP was a mixed event, with the headline missing expectations, but with upward revisions of prior months and with unemployment falling to the lowest level since 2008.

On the technical side, we see an ABCD reversal pattern coming into a key support level on the daily timeframe . This is a 4 point price structure comprised of three consecutive swings where C is lower than A and the intermediate high after B. D is a new low under the price of B. AB and CD are proportional in both price and time. A high probability trade entry would be to go long at the completion point D. It converges with an oversold RSI , a key support level where price reversed before and a zone between the 500 and 618 retracement of the bullish trend that started last April. The mixed NFP of last Friday might help it push up as well.

The stop would go under the aforementioned 618 retracement which has a nice confluence with the lower trend line of an ascending parallel channel. If price breaks these, the trade becomes invalid. TP1 lies just under the next key resistance level. TP2 lies just under the price level of A. See chart for details. In terms of trade management, when TP1 is hit I would take profit on half of my position and roll my stop loss to breakeven, enjoying a risk free trade towards TP2. As always consult your own trading plan and apply the rules of entry, exit and risk management you normally use and are comfortable with.

There are 750+ pips to be made and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 7!
You don´t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - B. Dylan
GcNaif MOD
a year ago
good one , same view like yours
+5 Reply
JasperForex MOD GcNaif
a year ago
Nice, same view = confluence :)
+1 Reply
ddp922
a year ago
agree
downside is limited here i feel
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD ddp922
a year ago
Yes, lets see how it develops.
+1 Reply
Daniel.B
a year ago
Pip Mod Diddy! Very good, thorough analysis! Enjoyed reading it bro. I also share the same view as GcNaif and yourself! =)
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JasperForex MOD Daniel.B
a year ago
Excellent, similar views = confluence. Thanks for your response Director of Forex Operations :)
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Daniel.B JasperForex
a year ago
Lol is that my new nickname on here.. lmao =D
+1 Reply
CarsonKT
a year ago
yep, got the same ABCD on my chart as well,
I think it also confluence with one of my pitchfork parallel line as well.
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD CarsonKT
a year ago
Nice, could you post your chart here as a comment? I don't use pitchforks but am curious to see it. We learn by sharing!
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CarsonKT JasperForex
a year ago
snapshot

Shorted at ML and took profit where AB=CD,
Looking for some place to long
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD CarsonKT
a year ago
Great, thank you, nice chart! I see price has broken above the median line again.
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CarsonKT JasperForex
a year ago
It shot up so fast while I was sleeping during London session :(
Woke up this morning 38.2% ret is reached and RSI is OS, I step aside and watch
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD CarsonKT
a year ago
Yes it went fast :)
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moneymaking
a year ago
Great work Jasper as always. All the BEST :)
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD moneymaking
a year ago
Thank you for saying so, lets see how this one plays out.
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Andrey.Ustinov
a year ago
Disagree
snapshot
+1 Reply
Andrey.Ustinov Andrey.Ustinov
a year ago
Also depend on 16-17 decision, but mind this also
snapshot
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JasperForex MOD Andrey.Ustinov
a year ago
Thank you for presenting an alternate view backed up with actual charts, the more views the better.
+1 Reply
yonswac
a year ago
There is a great demand zone as well :)
+2 Reply
JasperForex MOD yonswac
a year ago
Thanks for your comment. I am not proficient with supply and demand zones myself, would you care to put up a chart and explain briefly?
+1 Reply
yonswac JasperForex
a year ago
Strong rally, not a really good demand area TBH, because it's not fresh anymore.
snapshot
+1 Reply
UrbiGT
a year ago
Nice one
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD UrbiGT
a year ago
Thanks, so far so good :)
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IanMFX
a year ago
I would agree that we would now be bullish. See also my long term analysis.
Cable turned bullish for some weeks ?
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD IanMFX
a year ago
Thanks for commenting and for sharing your long term view. The more views the better. May the pips be with you :)
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IanMFX JasperForex
a year ago
+127 pips till now :-) and holding the trade open for more pips :-) Moved SL to secure 50% of it so far.

Althought there was a kinda double-top at 1.5400 but didn't work.
+1 Reply
FXPartisan
a year ago
Why are you NOT more active Jasper? I like your analysis and also would like to see more.
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD FXPartisan
a year ago
I am trying to find a balance with the amount of time spent on trading, moderating, helping with the development of certain new features and publishing ideas. This last activity has taken a backseat lately and I will take your question as an encouragement to publish more often. Thanks for your comment, I appreciate it.
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FXPartisan JasperForex
a year ago
I hope you would do that. You know there is a great interconnection between the process of sharing your ideas and learning more and more. Just like the discussions that you see here below your published idea. Everyone talks about his point of view and at last what you achieve is "The Vantage Point".
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD FXPartisan
a year ago
Yes, thats absolutely true. Well said!
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KVE PRO
a year ago
Hope it works out, I'm long too, target 1.5420!
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD KVE
a year ago
May the pips be with you :)
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TahirAli
a year ago
Thanks Jasper I followed your trade and right now I am 180 pips up.
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD TahirAli
a year ago
Nice! Today has a very light news agenda, so the trade won't be disturbed by it, lets see how it develops today...
+1 Reply
Jimparut
a year ago
Thanks Jasper, i am taking out my 100 pips today of your analysis. now trying to study your analysis as my references for the future.
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD Jimparut
a year ago
Don´t mention it and good luck with the study (knowledge & skills = pips = money). I am still studying myself to improve my way of trading.
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Ahmer
a year ago
What a shot! , Great pick :)
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD Ahmer
a year ago
Cheers!
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Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Jasper, zo zie ik het.
snapshot
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JasperForex MOD Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Thanks for sharing an alternate view, the more the better so we can look at it from all angles and make the best assessment possible. Momentum has slowed down and price seems to be in consolidation now, I am monitoring to see if it finds support and can keep moving up, or if its a sell from here. For now I am holding my long. Good luck to you!
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hatimtai Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Amazing differential view. I agree
+1 Reply
mastergravy
a year ago
The price didn't reach the bottom of this perfect channel, why buy now?
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD mastergravy
a year ago
Good question! The trade is not based on that channel per se, rather on the confluence of a number of reasons to go long at the level above its lower trend line. But the channel does provide some extra "security" so I put the initial SL below it.
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Great trade so far Jasper. I took this as a swing trade and have already exited not as much TP was much lower and not actively monitoring the trade. Love your thoughts and keep on pipping!
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD nick.harrington
a year ago
Thank you for saying so and congratulation on the pips made. I am still long, aiming for more pips. Lets see how it develops :)
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As I said in prior comments I held on to my long while price was in consolidation. Here is how I see the situation play out on the hourly timeframe, so far so good.
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DJC JasperForex
a year ago
The Bullish Consolidation continued perhaps. 1.54 now offering major support.

Best of luck my online trading buddy! Wish you TP1 and TP2 on this! Ive learned a great deal from your charts and methods of Confluence so thank you Sir!

Cable Bullish Gathering

+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD DJC
a year ago
Hey thanks, thats very nice of you to say. At its best TradingView is a place where you can learn, share, question and observe to see what works and what doesn't, what make sense and what doesn't, before you try things out for yourself. In the end we are all here to improve our trading skills, I learn from others as well and am glad if someone picks up a thing or two from my charts. Cheers!
+1 Reply
Vincenzo111 JasperForex
a year ago
Thank you J , cheers
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD Vincenzo111
a year ago
Sure thing!
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mkdeep04 DJC
a year ago
http://prntscr.com/8fn44x possible
+1 Reply
JasperForex MOD mkdeep04
a year ago
Nice, thank you for sharing that option / idea, I would not complain if it played out :)
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A favorable UK employment report this morning (with solid average earnings and a lower unemployment rate) strengthened the Pound enough to eventually push the Cable over its first profit target of 330 pips. With the stop moved to BE this trade has now become risk free and is essentially a management of profit. Lets see how far it can reach :)
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