Daily view: As we already know from the weekly scale, price moved in one direction last week – south! After the market took out bids sitting at not only the daily support (1.5329), but also daily demand at 1.5189-1.5345, price slam dunked itself into another daily demand at 1.5088-1.5173.
4hr view: Cable was relatively quiet up until the NFP release on the 4hr timeframe. As you can see, price initially spiked higher to fill unfilled offers around the 4hr swap (supply) area at 1.5256-1.5294 before selling off below psychological support 1.5200 to end the week.
To the far left of current price, check out the 4hr tails at 1.5166/1.5162/1.5149. These spikes south represent consumed demand in our opinion, suggesting the market may continue to sell-off today/this week. The next logical support structure on the 4hr timeframe is visible at 1.5114 – a 4hr Quasimodo which has fantastic swap level history.
In a nutshell, the structure of this pair can be boiled down to the following:
• The weekly chart reveals that there is little stopping this market from dropping further this week.
• The shows that the buyers and sellers are now battling for position at the top-side of daily demand at 1.5088-1.5173.
• The 4hr chart, like the weekly chart, also shows room to continue lower this week, but only until around the 1.5114 mark.
With the above in mind, our attention will mostly be driven to 1.5200 and the 4hr Quasimodo support at 1.5114. The reason we’re watching 1.5200 today simply comes down to the both the weekly and 4hr timeframes showing relatively clear paths south. Lower timeframe selling confirmation will be needed to short at this level because we’re also trading around daily demand at 1.5088-1.5173.
On the flip side, we’re also going to be keeping an eye on 1.5114. This level, as already mentioned, has historical significance and is also lodged deep within the above said daily demand. Like 1.5200 though, we are also going to need lower timeframe buying confirmation at this barrier as buying from here potentially puts you against weekly sellers.
Levels to watch/ live orders:
• Buys: 1.5114 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where on confirms this level).
• Sells: 1.5200 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where on confirms this level).