ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Long

Pending Long GBP/USD mid to low 1.64XX region

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
446 16 4
- Mid 1.64XX is the 61.8 fib level of the recent upswing, which is also where the green trend line is (projected trend line from the top and a real trend line based on lows)
- Low 1.64XX is where the red trend line is (projected trend line from the top and this also represents the same drop as we had previously of 411.4 pips).

I would put a hard stop loss at 1.6350/75, don't bother lowering it past this point.

Target 1: mid 1.67XX region
Target 2: previous high at 1.682X
Target 3: 1.7000 (ultimate target)

PS: For the record, I didn't catch the mid 1.65XX bounce of 100 pips, it didn't hit my pending buy order. However, after it dropped, I did get in at 1.6535 but I exited for near break even and decided to wait for lower.
Mirandole
2 years ago
falling wedge :/
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I have a feeling the 1.6250 level 'may not' hold so I edited it out of the original post. Hard stop loss is now at 1.6350 instead, no point for wide stops. When the time comes, I'll post an updated analysis on the potential downside risk showing why 1.6250 'may not' hold.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
A prudent decision. If I may add, according to my tools, the hardest support level I can see is in the range of 1.6336 and 1.6490. So a stop at 1.6350 would be OK for an entry at the higher support, which I believe to be at 1.6435-1.6445.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForceFollower
2 years ago
If 1.64 goes, it doesn't really matter, the entry regions of this trade assume we stay in an uptrend. Once 1.64 is broken, the 'healthy' uptrend is gone and we're in another scenario e.g., reversal, downtrend or expanding triangle.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Added 1.6375 as a possible SL as well, so it's personal choice really between 25 to 50 pip stop loss from the 1.64 level.
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ForceFollower ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
If you don't mind my vantage point, this pair, by my standards, is no longer in an uptrend. But it's not in a down trend either. :-) I find the healthy uptrend to be gone at the time this market recorded that sell-off, wide-range bar on March 19th (to be seen on H4).
I believe though that the strongest support for this currently falling price is to be found just below 1.634 (roughly 1.6337).
There are minor support levels: just above 1.64 (1.6405) and around 1.644. But I don't know, what to expect of them at the moment.
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Mirandole ForceFollower
2 years ago
IMO
snapshot
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Originally, I had wanted to use this chart for an article that I'm writing right now but I'll just post the chart now...
Why 1.6250 might not hold on GBPUSD
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Some more food for thought.
Reason why I drew the green box in the last chart
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Jamil Ahmed
2 years ago
GBPUSD sell limit 1.6530 TP 1.3665 SL 1.6615
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digitaltradingfx
2 years ago
Good analysis it is also good to note that there is a hidden bullish divergence signalling trend continuation, furthermore the fib line furthermore the bounce of 61.8 is a strong indication that it is poised to continue its uptrend.
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I didn't trade this one but I hope some of you guys did, you'd be sitting on a cool +100-150 pips right now.
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digitaltradingfx ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I am surprised you didnt take this it was a no brainer too much confluence and considering the fact that the fact the dollar was already weakening against its other counterparts, I guess better safe than sorry, anyway I took it before I saw this and this further reaffirmed my long bias.
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ForexWeeklyAnalysis digitaltradingfx
2 years ago
On any given week, I watch between 20-30 pairs and then I pick 10-15 to trade, this was one of them but my pending long was in the low 1.64XX region, which never got hit. I don't have any regrets, there's lots of trades to come.
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digitaltradingfx ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Very true, better safe than sorry fruitful pips week ahead :)
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digitaltradingfx
2 years ago
I am surprised you didnt take this it was a no brainer too much confluence and considering the fact that the fact the dollar was already weakening against its other counterparts, I guess better safe than sorry, anyway I took it before I saw this and this further reaffirmed my long bias.
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