The Target for the 40 Day peak has been met at 1.26065 and I am currently in my last long position with a trailing stop from the bounce out of the 20 day trough marked on 07th April, the start of the cycle being on 20th of March.
As of today we are 26 days into the cycle and should start descending into the 40 day trough anytime now.
The 20 Day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) has a median price of 1.24216 for tomorrow, this will be our cross point. The peak high will be our pivot point which as of right now is 1.26471 this gives us the target for the 40 day trough of 1.21961.
I have my sell stop orders set that the above mentioned cross point. I trade EOD charts, and the FLD levels (Cross points) change everyday so I update them accordingly.
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My last long from the previous 20 day bounce hit its trailing SL now I have no open position in this pair. Seems like some sort Orders still set at the same levels for the short position
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*seems like price is retesting the speed lines(C-fork) from below and we are on track to form the 40 day trough
Trade active
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Short entry Triggered @ 1.24565
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Apologies (if anyone does read,lol) forgot to update, the closing price line chart crossed the 20 Day FLD on the 18th, Median Cross point 1.24705, Pivot Point 1.24705 gives the Target for the 40 Day trough as 1.22939.
As mentioned above my short was triggered (based on price action of lower Time frame), still in that trade. will obviously scale out and move SL as we move along.
32 days in the cycle as of today, expect the trough in next 2 days.
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*the pivot point above should be the peak ie 1.26471
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1/3 of the position closed as the trade has reached half way, SL moved a little above Entry price
Trade closed: target reached
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another 1/3 taken off the table as true cycle was hit, now only 1/3th left for lottery trade which will have a trailing Stop.
PS : Will publish a new Idea for a long position towards the next peak
@rahiths, I usually enter the markets not on the Crossing points but on price action based on shorter time frames. My true cycle target is 1.22939 but as always will be scaling out as we approach it. Let me update that in the Idea section as well.
I believe you missed your sell stop but good analysis and I am expecting deeper correction though
Zaphod_beeblebrox42
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@rahiths, yes the short has not yet been triggered, its sitting at 1.24320.
My trailing SL of the previous long position still not hit, so playing both side right now.
And I am expecting a deeper correction as well but as per my analysis it should be in maybe late may or june. Lets see how the cycle shapes unfold.
@rahiths, thanks. are you playing the down move? or on the sidelines for now?
rahiths
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@Zaphod_beeblebrox42, I am short from 1.2580 with a stop above 200MA, added few at 1.2500 area today with trailing stop.
Targeting 1.22-20 area. I am bearish long term, dollar shortage due to pandemic will be an issue again as it happened in March to hit new low such as 1.10 sooner than later, every big bullish GBP move I will be a seller to avoid any flash crash at this time of uncertainty. Frankly, I want it to go around 1.30, would be more fun to play
transparent-fx
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this is my overall point of view on gbpusd from a multi-timeframe analysis perspective