Italy continues to put pressure on the euro . By and large, the story repeats itself 3 years ago with Greece. Just one to one. Populists also came to power in Italy. The country also has a lot of debt, but populists do not even think of trying to live up to the bills, continuing to pump up the already inflated national debt. Of the recent coincidences that fall just “in the bull's eye” - statements that Italy may abandon the euro in favor of its own national currency (recall, Greece threatened to return to the drachma). What is most interesting in this whole story is the end, which was obvious in case of Greece and then again it is obvious now. Tsipras (former Prime Minister of Greece and an ardent populist) was summoned to the carpet and explained in detail how this would end for Greece. After that, the country ceased to be “kinky” and agreed to the EU conditions. We believe that a similar story will happen to Italy. They are too deep in debt to dictate something to creditors. So, in this regard, we would not worry about the euro , but rather keep in mind that it is quite possible that another interesting and promising trading idea emerges - the purchase of the euro. But it is too early to talk about it, and the potential for decline has not yet been exhausted, plus the parties have not yet moved to the active phase of confrontation, as it was in the case of Greece. So, we continue to follow the situation with interest, even knowing how it will end.
We could not pass unnoticed the news that Russia has significantly increased oil production (by 150K b/d over the last month), because of which it reached a record value of 11.356 million b/d, exceeding the previous record, which was recorded in 2016. This news is interesting to us primarily because it confirms one of our basic strategic trading ideas - oil sales. The of oil production by Russia in September de facto confirms the death of OPEC+. And after all, the OPEC + agreement provoked the growth of oil from levels in the region of 30-40 dollars per barrel to the current 80+. So, we continue to recommend sales of oil , and with it the Russian ruble sales as well.