Technician
Short

GBPUSD: A Justified Short!

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
1616 63 18
The BoE indicated that a rate hike could come towards the end of the first quarter of 2015, or the beginning of the following quarter, dampening expectations of an early rate hike, and stressing that although the economy is improving a rate hike is still not justified, it would be, only if slack in the economy started to diminish and inflation starts to pick up. "Unless inflation expectations really start to take off, the BoE will judge that there is enough slack in the economy to keep rates on hold for a while yet," he said in a note.
I believe that a downside correction that is deeper is likely, as "weak longs" cover their position and could be a strong reason for profit taking on longs.

Technically, the price has completed a head and shoulders top over the four-hour chart, by breaking the key support area around 1.6820, I will be looking to short near that area if we witness the pullback, targeting 1.6700 and 1.6655 levels. Holding back above 1.6875 will probably force me to exit.

Good Luck, Come Join me at https://twitter.com/thefxchannel :)
My live trades here https://telegram.me/joinchat/DgsnQ0FzifLqyI2YAoMqqQ
ForceFollower
2 years ago
OK. How about those guys, who were waiting for 1.7 to be hit?
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Technician TOP ForceFollower
2 years ago
It could be hit, but not in the near months
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Technician TOP Technician
2 years ago
Probably later this year!
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
next week in my opinion, 1.7040(5/8/09)
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Technician TOP itaskar
2 years ago
Could be the case :) . Doesn't matter where price is headed, as long as we trade the move :), u know we are not forecasters, we just trade what we see.
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itaskar Technician
2 years ago
I agree, I see broken resistance what can be now support
snapshot
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Technician TOP itaskar
2 years ago
Yep, right, but this is a weekly chart , there is always a big margin of movement within these levels, like for example we may break lower within the week towards the downside targets, but rebound again and end the week above that support u mentioned.
One more thing is the shooting star candle the prior week .
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Technician TOP Technician
2 years ago
At the end of the day its a shot...
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itaskar Technician
2 years ago
Yep, you right pal...time will show more.
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Technician TOP itaskar
2 years ago
Good luck
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
A good eye! I like it.
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Technician TOP ForceFollower
2 years ago
Thanks Mate
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Anyway, let's see in what style we reach the multipivot level at 1.6835. I expect to find strong resistance up there as well. However, I find it hard to imagine your targets hit before some kind of ending diagonal or final whatever up leg (reaching roughly 1.69) completes. :)
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Technician TOP ForceFollower
2 years ago
Ideally, I will be waiting to see some sort of rejection after a pullback before shorting. But i am posting this as a general framework for my potential trade, as I might be unavailable to post it at tradingview at later time.
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Technician TOP Technician
2 years ago
Sometimes, selloff is fast enough to leave people chasing. I try not to speculate on how the move will unfold, and to keep things as simple as possible as well
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GPB/USD Weekly study
Agreed!
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Net short positions at my broker over the last 24 hours start to thin:
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions
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gringerman
2 years ago
Technician, thanks for pointing this trade. A pennant has formed in the price action with potential for a long trade. Please refer to my idea and let me know what you think?
GBPUSD - 4HR Potential long setup
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Technician TOP gringerman
2 years ago
A bullish rebound from that support is likely, as shown on the chart below, but lets see how price behaves at 1.6820, a bearish candle there would signal a short

snapshot
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gringerman Technician
2 years ago
Agree Technician..
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gringerman Technician
2 years ago
Took the first profit when the price hit the green trendline. Raised the stop loss to above entry. The next profit target is the median line. The trade already got an assured profit of around 20 pips depending on where the entry was. Mine was at 1.67954 and exit was at 1.68219. Good luck!
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Technician TOP gringerman
2 years ago
Great one, am awaiting now to see 1.6820 area, not confirmed short yet.
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gringerman Technician
2 years ago
Technician, I was analyzing the GBPUSD daily chart. Currently, price is retracing from today's high. If price closes above yesterday's high, I am thinking of establishing a long position as the price has bounced from 50% retracement levels and is contained in a well respected upward channel, as indicated in the below chart. This is purely from a technical basis.
GBPUSD - D1 - Potential Long Opportunity
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Technician TOP gringerman
2 years ago
We are currently in a retesting process, lets see if it succeed before

snapshot
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Bou_zid Technician
2 years ago
Hello technician,
excellent point of view about the next possible move of the cable.
but dont forget in daily frame we have an up side channel making a very strong resitance @1.6750. a break under would lead me to think as you do. but now i see more bullish movement of the britich pound linked to a possible strong economic data coming up next week .
hope the best for everyone.
am long until 1.6890
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ForceFollower Bou_zid
2 years ago
I agree, Bou_zid.
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Bou_zid ForceFollower
2 years ago
hi FF, dont agree with me. i might be wrong . in Forex no one is really aware of what happening. we just small speculators. i dont like to give my opinion about next movement of any asset. things can swing in a blink of an eye and one should be ready to act as quuick aspossible; be ware of other's opinions..
good luck everyone
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ForceFollower Bou_zid
2 years ago
Hi, BZ, I don't think you're wrong, so I agree with you. I also agree with your second post about the uncertainty in the fx markets.
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Technician TOP Bou_zid
2 years ago
Love this
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Bou_zid Technician
2 years ago
mixed data will not push the cable up. more pressure on shorting now. giving a fixed perspective is the wrong state of mind.
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ForceFollower gringerman
2 years ago
I agree: "The next profit target is at the median line". Still long.
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delete ForceFollower
2 years ago
I am expecting too see at least 1.6988 with that pair..
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Technician TOP delete
2 years ago
Good luck guyz, i am still monitoring, no confirmed short signal yet!
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ForceFollower delete
2 years ago
That's OK. But it may get harder above 1.691.
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Thanks Technician, entering at 1.68219 before a confirmation I guess (?) because here is too late, hoping a good breakfast :)
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Technician TOP JorgeEllena
2 years ago
I wont enter this trade without clear confirmation, as price is within a strong uptrend.
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JorgeEllena PRO Technician
2 years ago
Yes you are right, resistance+SHS neckline induced me to enter early but surely I am still making mistakes. Is the confirmation of the price a crucial step before enter on a trade for you?. Do you recommend close the trade in my case? ty!
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Technician TOP JorgeEllena
2 years ago
In my approach, confirmation is very crucial. I cant advise what to do, But if it was me i would exit if i see clear four-hour candle close above 1.6875
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JamesCorreia
2 years ago
I was following this pair since last week, my system gave me a trigger signal to short the pair so I did... Everything comes down to following a business plan guys. 2 weeks ago took a loser shorting the top of EURUSD, but that's the thing with any plan: No plan will ever be successful 100% of the time, no matter how good you make it.

My target is at 1.6690's, good luck for those who got into this trade.

Best regards
+3 Reply
gringerman
2 years ago
I am enjoying the discussion on this trade. Since there are traders agreeing on both sides of the trade, it clearly shows that there is no direction to the trade. GBPUSD is in a trading range and may breakout one way or the other. The pair completed a long uptrend and went into a correction, which retraced 50% of the original uptrend. After that, it has been trading up and down within a range, waiting for it to be resolved one way or the other. I think this will be resolved just before or after the GBP Consumer Price Index announcement on May 20, 08:30 UTC.
As Bou_Zid and Technician mentioned, the market can change direction any time and better to wait for confirmation. While my bias is on the long side since price is bouncing after the retracement, I am also waiting for a strong confirmation for a long term trade. Good luck!
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JamesCorreia gringerman
2 years ago
gringerman, you give a good point. But every setup can always have a break up or down, there is never an absolute certainty no any setups whatsoever. We can just make up a plan and act accordingly to it. What the market will do after we open our exposure, it's never predictable. Nobody can open a trade a guarantee it is going to be a winner, nobody. That's a good point for anybody that it's still finding it's way through the markets.

Good luck to you all
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JamesCorreia JamesCorreia
2 years ago
Also, I too believe tomorrow's announcement will be the deal breaker
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Guys, watch for today's CPI number will decide the fate of this trade.
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gringerman
2 years ago
Amazing! GBPUSD hit the H4 median line which I published earlier and is going down after that. Though I published that chart, looking at the two sided action, I was very doubtful. But I was surprised to see that it went and hit the H4 target at the median exactly on the dot and then is retracing. If only I had the courage to backup the trade,it would have been double profit on that.
GBPUSD - 4HR Potential long setup
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
I don't think it's done rising. I'm still bullish about this pair. All it has done is hardly retraced 50%. I expect it to retrace to my black bear trend line or the red sliding parallel.
snapshot
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gringerman ForceFollower
2 years ago
Will be closely watching it to see if there is a nice bull bar close above the prior bar. In the daily bar, it is still rising with the 20 EMA acting as resistance. If it closes above it today, I think there is a good chance of meeting the daily chart median line.
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ForceFollower gringerman
2 years ago
Sure, gingerman.
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gringerman ForceFollower
2 years ago
Good job in keeping your faith ForceFollower. It is a good trade
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ForceFollower gringerman
2 years ago
Thanks. As someone once said, "The force was with me". :D
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delete ForceFollower
2 years ago
I am done for now.. Bearish Butterfuly on the way..Enough profit.... Will be watching bounces
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Haven't shorted yet, but see some signs of a short coming
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DrAMohammadi Technician
2 years ago
hi..PLZ see at
Head & Shoulders in GBPUSD

Head & Shoulders in GBPUSD
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JamesCorreia
2 years ago
Today's spike high didn't took me out of the short position, almost 2 days in it now. I guess this trade should work out one way or the another tomorrow with BOE's Minutes and UK's retail sales. If that doesn't get the job done, then we have UK's GDP on thursday.

Best regards
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ForceFollower JamesCorreia
2 years ago
I've taken profit @ 1.687. I could have let it run higher, but my strategy did not include that scenario. :)
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gringerman ForceFollower
2 years ago
Cool. You mentioned 1.691 in one of your earlier comments. Should have held on to it
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ForceFollower gringerman
2 years ago
Yes, indeed. :) I'd been waiting for so long that I decided to go for the more conservative target. But I'm fine with what I've got. No regrets - I traded my strategy, target hit.
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Bou_zid ForceFollower
2 years ago
let the profit run higher in forex ;it'"s a little bit hard to do ;even for stock market. you reach the amount desired abd you get out, nice work if you did take profit at 70.
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Good trades guyz, good thing never got shorting signal here .
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ForceFollower Technician
2 years ago
Right, Technician. That's what the entry trigger setups are for.
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Technician TOP ForceFollower
2 years ago
Actually, I was going to short on a break below 1.6800, but price failed to .
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JamesCorreia Technician
2 years ago
Took a loser on this one, on the plus side, I had a short trade on EURGBP aswell... Lost X on GBPUSD to profit twice as much on EURGBP (I always risk exactly the same amount per trade)

See you guys on the next setup

Best regards
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Technician TOP JamesCorreia
2 years ago
Good Spetz, wish you luck. See you on the next one
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gringerman
2 years ago
Take a look at the GBPUSD daily chart analysis which I have published in the attached chart. Please do let me know your comments.
GBPUSD - D1 - Trend Analysis
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