I continuously analyze and re-analyze the market with an open mind. I try never to be so caught up about me being "right" that I fail to see the obvious. And right now, the scenario that I am posting here seems to be the obvious! Mind the fact that it's STILL only a possibility. I'm not saying this is for sure. Only time will tell.
So enough with the lesson. So what the heck is going on with Cable right now? Let's see....
What you are seeing in the chart above is the COMPLETED pattern I posted about last Friday (see Related Ideas: "TRADE: GBPUSD: BUY@1.5380 Completed Shark"). In fact, I am already LONG on this pair by way of that pattern. BUT...by this scenario, this is NOT the beginning of the long anticipated wave (C) up! By this scenario, this move up will only be a brief retrace of that last big move down in a wave (2) action. It should be a sharp retrace and ending right around where I have the POTENTIAL pattern completing. This move up will also be a retest of the recently broken lower of the larger consolidation pattern. After which, I would anticipate a wave (3) down that will be quite strong! So in this scenario, THAT wave (3) is what I will be watching for! Although this downward move I'm showing is happening on the DAILY TF, I expect that this will all occur pretty quickly and will not take several weeks to complete. But this down move will be a trap. So when most people have jumped on board this move, then the BIG wave (C) up will begin trapping all those bears!
OVERVIEW - Showing the 3 Patterns, Wave Count And Projected Price Action
This is basically the same one from last week (see Related Ideas: "QUICK ANALYSIS: GBPUSD: Two Scenarios It Could Follow") in which I laid out a scenario (Scenario #2). In this below, the 3 patterns that could define this move down are shown. The first stop would be the pattern which could mark the end of the wave ( iii ) down. The other two pattern, the bat and the could make the end of the down move and wave (B) and mark the beginning of the BIG up move in wave (C). Notice that the bat and the BOTH finish almost on top of each other! Also notice that there is a pattern along the way down that completed near a MAJOR SR Structure. Just something to take note of when prices reach that point and to expect some kind of reaction. But first, prices MUST cross down below the B point before any of this can happen. For now, that B point will provide support for a short wave (ii) up and then BAM! The wave (ii) down will shoot past that B point line and proceed down sharply.
MY TRADE PLAN
As per my trade post last week, I am currently LONG on this pair expecting the bounce retracement of that big move down last week which I labeled a wave (i). This wave (i) turned this pair . I'll be in this wave (ii) up until it hits the pattern. Upon that pattern completion, I will be looking to go SHORT for the wave ( iii ) down.
Year-to-date Profits: +5,794 pips.
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Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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