Looking for that bullseye GBPUSD area
Here is another Forex Trading Snack.
Hey a few days ago I posted in TradeView chat that I thought GBP would be heading into another short lived down move and then have another move to set new highs of this recent longer swing move up off the bottom. I was met with some comments to the effect that implied there might be a lack of experience, because the commentary stated “ the GBPUSD is in a longer term down trend so this idea was of a higher risk.... “
It is true that counter trend moves are more risky, but as all traders we use personal experiences and analysis in finding lower risk and higher probability setups to trade. So for me it’s not a matter of great importance to be right Vs. other traders opinions. It’s just my analysis, my trade idea, me risking my own money—and so I have no other agenda other then always looking to improve myself and my trading. And I hope that this is what I bring to the table to those traders who are reading my thoughts here.
I really don’t want to argue with anybody here. But even a broken clock is right twice per day!
What my trading experiences have shown me is counter trend trades do have a higher risk element in trading them. However I have also noticed that Elliott Wave 5 wave patterns are very telling with a high probability that not only that a move is ending, but pointing to a new high in price to then trade.
GBPUSD popped off the bottom with positive Brexit developments, causing a short squeeze of sorts. Nothing about the move has a EW 5 wave look except right where we currently are on a 1H chart. Not only is there a noticeable momentum slow down in 4H charts, but price action is the most telling, and least lagging of momentum indicators. Within this slow down area and where I posted thus view along with a lower green box as my targeted buy zone for a play on the 5 wave higher. The wave I believe we are currently in now.
So what is the trade if you missed the lower green box buy signal?
The upper green targeted box now might offer a good position to get short again ( a short trade is in line with the longer term down trend. ) This little 5 wave up is counter trend so no one gets confused.
EW 5 waves usually set new highs and signal a reversal, which usually will be marked with a 3 wave move down, or a move counter to the original 5 wave movements. (5 waves work in both directions ) once a new high is set this EW 5 wave is considered compleat but how high a move over the 3rd wave high is open for discussion. I d seen a pip or two as being the new high and then price reversed, as well as I’ve seen a move to the 123-161 fib extensions. I’ve marked the green upper targeted area as my place to watch and be looking for a key reversal candle on the 4H charts. Because I caught the short term bottom 4th wave I will be setting up my 5th wave short orders using profits from the pop up in price.
If you need more info on EW 5 waves as I see them. Then PM me. Always glad to talk trading.
In full disclosure, I am not a Elliott Wave technical analysis, just a self taught trader ( as we all are ) who has developed being able to see 5 waves more easily in charts, as well as trading them as a higher probability trade setup within my trading toolbox.
As always, if you trade any ideas the risk is all yours of any risk of loss.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust!
All the best to everyone.
Hey a few days ago I posted in TradeView chat that I thought GBP would be heading into another short lived down move and then have another move to set new highs of this recent longer swing move up off the bottom. I was met with some comments to the effect that implied there might be a lack of experience, because the commentary stated “ the GBPUSD is in a longer term down trend so this idea was of a higher risk.... “
It is true that counter trend moves are more risky, but as all traders we use personal experiences and analysis in finding lower risk and higher probability setups to trade. So for me it’s not a matter of great importance to be right Vs. other traders opinions. It’s just my analysis, my trade idea, me risking my own money—and so I have no other agenda other then always looking to improve myself and my trading. And I hope that this is what I bring to the table to those traders who are reading my thoughts here.
I really don’t want to argue with anybody here. But even a broken clock is right twice per day!
What my trading experiences have shown me is counter trend trades do have a higher risk element in trading them. However I have also noticed that Elliott Wave 5 wave patterns are very telling with a high probability that not only that a move is ending, but pointing to a new high in price to then trade.
GBPUSD popped off the bottom with positive Brexit developments, causing a short squeeze of sorts. Nothing about the move has a EW 5 wave look except right where we currently are on a 1H chart. Not only is there a noticeable momentum slow down in 4H charts, but price action is the most telling, and least lagging of momentum indicators. Within this slow down area and where I posted thus view along with a lower green box as my targeted buy zone for a play on the 5 wave higher. The wave I believe we are currently in now.
So what is the trade if you missed the lower green box buy signal?
The upper green targeted box now might offer a good position to get short again ( a short trade is in line with the longer term down trend. ) This little 5 wave up is counter trend so no one gets confused.
EW 5 waves usually set new highs and signal a reversal, which usually will be marked with a 3 wave move down, or a move counter to the original 5 wave movements. (5 waves work in both directions ) once a new high is set this EW 5 wave is considered compleat but how high a move over the 3rd wave high is open for discussion. I d seen a pip or two as being the new high and then price reversed, as well as I’ve seen a move to the 123-161 fib extensions. I’ve marked the green upper targeted area as my place to watch and be looking for a key reversal candle on the 4H charts. Because I caught the short term bottom 4th wave I will be setting up my 5th wave short orders using profits from the pop up in price.
If you need more info on EW 5 waves as I see them. Then PM me. Always glad to talk trading.
In full disclosure, I am not a Elliott Wave technical analysis, just a self taught trader ( as we all are ) who has developed being able to see 5 waves more easily in charts, as well as trading them as a higher probability trade setup within my trading toolbox.
As always, if you trade any ideas the risk is all yours of any risk of loss.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust!
All the best to everyone.
Comment:
Just a larger view of this pattern.
Comment:
www.tradingview.com/x/qiILSqMb/There we are. Price just set a new high. I must consider the 5th wave is complete now, the only question is how much farther we go up. Taking 1/2 of my position off for +115 pips
Allowing the rest to ride higher hopefully.
Allowing the rest to ride higher hopefully.
Comment:
Sorry the last chart didn’t post up right.
Trade closed manually:
Closed this trade idea. The pullback from the newly set 5th wave high hasn’t been much of a pull back, so it could press higher still. Although with the FOMC rate decision tomorrow, I’ve decided to take the balance of the position off the table for +90 pips.
Will be looking for short entries going forward.
Will be looking for short entries going forward.