This idea is based on a potential price failure trade on the GU and a possible reaction line reversal. If we get an entry on a pullback and it reverses & takes out the most recent swing bottoms on the 15 minute. The bigger picture shown the market may drop into the bigger daily median line for a nice extended short. I have a decent stop should it make another attempt at the upper median line and upper median line parallel. let's see how this unfolds
Comments
Timing_is_key
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Target reached:) Have a good weekend
apollo12
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GU DT gone beyond P5, WL of 0ML1-2 capture the P6 high i think.thanks ur chart are so much informative.
Timing_is_key
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I think I follow what you are saying however it wasn't P6 but an extended P4 ( ignoring the swing in between ), With this trade I began with a swing count and as you can see I was attempting to hit P4 as it missed the Median line and was correcting at the downward pink reaction line with the pink dots....notice how price followed the pink line:) It actually had another go at the median line however I antincipated this scenario with a 40 pip stop just in case. As you can see it was still a price failure trade at the NEW P4, it then fell away as anticipated.........What gave me additional confidence? If you notice the Green Dotted Line at the bottom of the screen, This is a much larger median line so I was 80% certain it would reach IT! just check Andrews rules regarding probability of reaching the median line. Puting it another way I was 80% sure this was going to fail to reach the upward SMALLER red dotted median line and when it did was almost certainly going to reach P3 at a minimum ( Another Andrews Rule see 'Price Failure Rule".....Hope this helps:)
apollo12
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Timing_is_key
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Your are right did not make new low, Nice warning line picking up the real P4:) As a side note, your P1 handle is not on the extreme of P1 thus you have P4 and REAL P4 hitting the median line which it did not........Remember price failure's tell you alot about how far the next move is going to be! ie..Lower than P3:) ...All the best and good work.
apollo12
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thanks 4 ur feedback
Timing_is_key
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any time!
Timing_is_key
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Nice pullback on what ended up being a low risk trade, Got the reaction I was looking for....notice how price is following the pink reaction line. Can be used to estimate the 'Speed of the move. Initial target on first position is anywhere on or just before the Lower MLH bottom "RED" parallel. The price failure rule indicates a high probability for even lower prices if the lower parallel is breached, hence the second "Larger Median Line Target".