It has been 2 weeks since we posted on the GBPUSD (“Elevated Probability of a 200 Pip Sell Off”).
The sell off cut deeper so the higher probability counts are getting shifted around. It appears there are support and wave relationships coming from multiple angles into the 1.5450-1.5550 zone. So the higher probability opportunity is to trade around that zone.
The June 18-24 sell off has many wave relationships that indicate it is impulsive. I have it labeled as wave (a). Within (a):
Wave iii traveled nearly 2.618* wave i Wave v traveled nearly .618 * wave i-iii Wave v terminated near the 2-4 trend channel
June 24-29 is clearly a correction of the down move.
June 29 thru today is lining up as impulsive with today’s high being wave 4 printing near the 38.2% retracement of wave 3.
The wave count shown on the chart above suggests blue wave ‘v’ comes to an end perhaps as early as next week in the zone (scenario #1). At that point, it would launch a rally towards 1.62.
A break above the upper blue trend line builds the case for a large rally.
So I’m cautiously bullish into the zone cited.
Much deeper than 1.5450 then we’ll likely step aside and wait for clarity.
Sentiment is tame at +1.16 so that doesn’t contribute to a bias.
Your higher probability count is appreciated, especially if different. I’m interested in other competing views.
Thanks for sharing. My wave count looks a little different, but price targets are surprisingly similar.
My view on the count:
Price targets:
Targets are derived from a fib analysis I started yesterday. Still work in progress, but since they matched yours so nicely, I thought I'd share them anyway.
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
Thank you for the charts Nathan - very similar zones and counts. Have a great week!
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
Slight shift in the near term wave labels as this sell off has punched slightly below previously cited levels. This sell off today appears to be a blue wave v. Within blue wave v we should see 5 waves down. It appears the 3rd wave reached the 4.236 of wave 1. Look for a small corrective bounce higher then one more jab lower to finish off this sequence.
Now is not the best time to try to time the Sterling. If the wave count morphs into scenario #2, then prices likely cut deeper to 1.5360 immediately. Wait for resistance to break to the upside (near 1.5530) before buying.
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
We're tagging the underside of this blue line. Respect the potential for one more leg down to near 1.5400.
pezq
⋅
My simplified chart looks like this. 1.5429 seems like a logical end point.
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
Hi Pezq, it appears you are doing an equal wave measurement. What wave are you measuring to derive 5429? Thank you for sharing.
DavidRoberts
⋅
Excellent analysis! Good to have you back Jeremy!
JWagnerFXTrader
⋅
Thank you David. I appreciate the kind words. I enjoyed being completely unplugged from technology for the week.
My view on the count:
Price targets:
Targets are derived from a fib analysis I started yesterday. Still work in progress, but since they matched yours so nicely, I thought I'd share them anyway.