Short GBPUSD for a fall below 1.3800

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
35 0 2
I am counting GBPUSD             as a wave(5) down move from wave(4) at 1.5500.

Within this wave(5), it consists of waves<1><2><3><4><5>. So far, the low of 1.3830 was wave<3>. The rally to 1.4770 was wave<4>. This wave<4> rebound was very nice as it traced out a very clear waves-a-b-c pattern. Also, there was a very bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern on the day it reached 1.4770 a few days ago. This confirms that a significant top is in place. If this week closes below 1.4450, it would also create a bearish weekly chart.

This wave(5) down move will break 1.3830 within the next month or so. But as this is a terminal wave<5> of wave(5), shorts should be covered and even be reversed near 1.3700.

UK data has been mostly weak this week. I reckon a bullish US nonfarm payrolls data this Friday will nail it below 1.4450. Over the coming weeks, uncertainty over the Brexit vote on 23 Jun is going to take its toll on GBP and other UK data. GBP moves are likely to be choppy as it reacts to each and every opinion polls and comments from officials on both camps.
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