Monk
Long

GBPUSD LONG @ 1.6157 ish

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
168 0 0
OK so I did a weekly view... some things to notice...

From an EW perspective the weekly view is clearer than a daily view... I do think we are now in a W4 correction, with an extended W3 completed at 1.64839.

We have broken upwards through the top rail of the large triangle everyone knows about after weekly consolidation beneath it.

SO... this top rail should (never any guarantees) act as support and given the fact that IF this is a W4 the 23 fib is pretty much where that top rail is. Also note that the red 20EMA is rising (i've extended it into the future) and if that also meets price at the time when (if) price tests the top rail, that will also help support a bounce up into a 5th wave.

The PT for me is the length of wave 1 which also matches the resistance which may be around 1.6745 ish             .

Basically, i'll look to go long at 1.6157 ish             . The only spanner in the works is that W4s are nasty, annoying, morphing, commission generating, account chewing beasts especially given that W2 was a quick, simple abc (rule of alteration). Therefore, after going long and if PA rises... i'll be watching out for W4 morphing into more W4! ie. churn and whipsaw.

Caveats: Obviously the W4 morphing as explained, but also stochastics on this chart is really overbought. The only thing I can say to defend a long position is that the monthly stochastics is strongly rising and the daily stochastics is unwinding... therefore, it could just be they are overbought on the weekly as they are showing a strong upward trend which is to continue - remember stochastics can remain overbought/sold for long periods of time, hence the study of other time frames to gain perspective. Also, to defend a long position... RSI is fine on the weekly, trundling along in the 60s with more room to move. If both RSI AND stochastics were overbought, i'd be WAY more concerned.

Let's see if PA touches my buy target - the risk/reward is favorable at that level.
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