Recognising pattern in the uptrend ongoing from October 2017 until now I was able to estimate the new top of the coming couple of weeks. The arc shaped arrows point the patterns that look alike and the pattern to be copied.
The height multiplier is the division of the height of the previous two patterns that are almost identical in width and shape. Multiply the outcome with the height of the following pattern and it provides us with an estimation for the top of the coming weeks.
Trade active
⋅
Doesn't happen that often but it seems that the time has come....
Comment
⋅
De height of the following partern starting of today =753 pips.
The total rally for the next two weeks is 753 x 924 / 444 = 1567 pips of which 567 in this week and 1000 pips next week.
The USD bull has managed to postpone it another two weeks above my expectations. Also this week I am not 100% confident it will not be disturbed.
Finally, Tuesday almost a week ago around 2 hours before London opened there was an impressive display of the market dominators fighting each on one side of the GU market. It pushed it further down to 1.32 but could not get it beyond that and doing so I noticed GU recovered from that power struggle a lot weaker than it was before it started. So everything is just moved a couple of week forward but I still expect it all to happen and with a weaker GU which may not make it to 1.5 at all.
Trade active
⋅
Now we really get started
Trade active
⋅
And now really really ;)
The USD raging bull has delayed the process quite a bit. Even now that it has really started I've seen new buying surges coming in. If this continues then the whole process will be delayed and take longer than two weeks. Let's see, keeping an eye on COT data, although it's one eye only.
Comment
⋅
Reality is, the bull never stopped and new failed attempts have passed each of them still seeming to come closer to the final real fall of UJ.
Coined the name UJ Seasionality as the USD started to reverse in the first week of July, Some say it's because of the closing of the first half and said it's because the other majors finally collect enough strength to overthrow the USD. It is probably both, you need the perfect storm to make the USD reverse because of its huge trading volumes. Basically make sure all other currencies are stronger and as the USD finishes another bull run and it returns back down then push it further down. Currency cycles should therefore be in ideal position , i.e. shifted from each other so that maximum force is transferred onto USD into a downward direction. The reversal alone is going to take one whole week or more, then the descent of UJ has to be completed of which bottom will mark end of process
Trade active
⋅
All geared up again. Still waiting for the correction where I expect the USD will be forced to fall against the other economies. It is not much longer the FED will be able to keep everyone in wonderland with their sweet talking.
Comment
⋅
Another signal for this continuation. USD Bull perma rig has held for this long and it took me two years to understand what I am dealing with here and to develop methods and strategies to disassemble the most economic damaging thing I have ever known of its existence.
Comment
⋅
Some ideas related to this two year discovery..
Comment
⋅
Currency strength is not what we see on the charts. Currency pairs are capable of piggybacking others and this way appear strong. Even more because its global presence is another variable used in the equation...
Comment
⋅
The multiple times postponed confluence of circumstances, up to the inevitable amplified version of the UJ Seasonality opening bell would collide with COVID economic turmoil..
Comment
⋅
Born without a sense of responsibility I guess..
Comment
⋅
Finally a little riddle to test if you completely understand the theory :)
@Jamal92, lol, yeah man, I keep thinking that the whole thing doesn't glue, i.e. all majors so much devaluation at once at the same time, that would signal some global problem. Also knowing that for the individual pairs it is for some hard to explain, take for example GBP, which has outperformed USD in April for the passed 6 six years and then this year without solid fundamental support suddenly devalues like this? Then the whole USD bull run phenomenon, we can find similar patterns in history and I'm not sure if anybody noticed something back then but one of the things I noticed was that rallies started and performed like any other liquid but then on a Monday or Tuesday Asian session, so volumes where obviously not listed with some of the international brokers such as Oanda. Made me think it has probably been orchestrated outside the retail network and between two entities only. Also looking at the candle formations on no liquidity times no deformation was visible whatsoever, normally the market would often respond opposite from what one would expect with supply and demand in mind. De list goes on, I did not document all of it, but this message is a good begin. There are just too many red flags for me to agree with analysis concluding it's caused by increase in bond yield and it has developed this trend. I am sure it would not look that artificial, to name one red flag.
Jamal92
⋅
@ArnaudKleinveld, Lets see. I can understand from where your perception is but for a movement like that and so fast especially to 1.5 in 2 weeks is crazy due to the fact that the UK government are having an Issue in sorting out brexit which is dampening the strength of GBP which is still not been resolved yet. I do wish it goes up like that as I will win big!
Deep-Peat-Shark
⋅
@Jamal92, I like to see that move too, and it's only possible if the same economic forces exist as before that the move started mid April. Which I somewhat doubt but nevertheless still possible. Because price went back to support I have update the analysis but because I can't do that here I publish a URL to my worksheet where I the chart designed at first: tradingview.com/chart/0y16U69l
lapin_eliott
⋅
@ArnaudKleinveld, this other chart is not very clear, please state with precision your joint target for gbpusd, gbpjpy AND usdjpy, do they verify gbpjpy=gbpusd*usdjpy or not ? i have the impression that your expectations on gbpusd and gbpjpy are incoherent with what you expect from usdjpy
Deep-Peat-Shark
⋅
@lapin_eliott, Price always verifies GJ = GU x UJ, meaning that at any point in time the price of GJ is equal to the product of GU and UJ. Therefor you can also use them to determine direction and magnitude of change. My chart is not including targets for GJ and UJ, only for direction. However, for UJ I have a long term prediction of 100 JPY to the USD, see one of my other ideas, and this move is the start of it. UJ will fall as GU rises because of the opposite position of the common denominator USD in the pairs name.
lapin_eliott
⋅
yes i know that but you have seen recently that uj AND gu or uj AND eu can fall both at the same time as long as it is coherent with gj and ej. this is why only a precise forecast on gj too can give a hint if there is or not a mathematical incoherence in your parallel forecasts of gj gu and uj. you could be very right on uj but completely wrong on gu. this is not because uj will fall that it guarantees that gu will rise
Deep-Peat-Shark
⋅
@lapin_eliott, True, however I've not used GJ as input in this analysis. The multiplication is done based on history data of GU itself. I should have left GJ and UJ out, that would have saved us time discussing it.
lapin_eliott
⋅
you say your last updated comment as if the reversal has showed any sign of beginning. but this is not the case at all. the trade war triggers a devaluation of all currencies to stay competitive for export, there is no reason for it to stop now, including the yen !
Deep-Peat-Shark
⋅
@lapin_eliott, The currency rates are as good as fixed now indeed. There is a USD Buying force, which is most likely the FED, and it has pushed the rates as far as the other central banks allow them to go, resulting in fixed rates such as 112.5 Yen to the USD, 1,168 USD to the EUR and 1.32 USD to the GBP. So now and then it seems the FED slows it down or other buying parties are decreasing and the rates move back into the other currency's favor. It has also already happened a few times that all of the major currencies were free from manipulation and you could see UJ seasonality continue where it left before. Typical a reversal takes a few weeks and a number of process steps will be taken. This process has exactly done half and you can see that on another study/idea of mine about USDCHF.
Having said that, today the game has changed again. What has been going on until now is almost like a normal exchange rate negotiation but then at larger scale as it is fought by central banks instead of traders imo. For an FX trade war to be fought there is no higher level than that, next would be outside the realm of monetary power and on political grounds. The pressure is rising, all parties are pushing other currencies down through their respective exchange rates. I guess it's a matter of time and we should watch out for news because this can not go on for long. Something needs to change because this is damaging all economies and international relations.
News media is talking about when the trade wars will start, to me it has started back in April.....